Market Watch: Bitcoin is under pressure around $118,000, follow tonight's non-farm payroll data.

Recently, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from multiple countries. This move aims to protect American manufacturing and address trade imbalances. Tariffs on Canadian goods have been raised from 25% to 35%, and transshipped goods will incur a 40% transshipment tax.

Latest economic data shows that the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, real disposable income has remained flat, and the household savings rate has stayed at a cautious level of 4.5%. Although the FOMC held interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time this week, two board members unusually voted in favor of a rate cut, marking the first occurrence in over thirty years. The Federal Reserve Chair stated that the current resilient labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy. The market is awaiting the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight, which could be key in determining the direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to fifty percent.

The "Stablecoin Regulation" that Hong Kong is set to implement in August has garnered significant attention. Analysts point out that this marks the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework, with its clear guidelines and credibility attracting many strong enterprises to apply for licenses. This indicates that the related technology will shift from the concept demonstration phase to large-scale commercial deployment.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $115,000 this morning but has since recovered to above $115,500. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin loses the key support of $114,000, the market conditions could worsen. There are also opinions suggesting that $115,883 is an important liquidation level. If the bulls can successfully break through the descending wedge resistance at $118,000, it will open the door for hitting a new historical high. On the fundamentals, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with a buy-sell ratio reaching 100:1, while the spot ETF has resumed net inflows, and news of the White House planning to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve has also boosted market sentiment.

Ethereum briefly dropped to around 3600 USD this morning. Analysis shows that although ETH continues to face selling pressure at the 4000 USD mark, its rebound speed has surpassed Bitcoin, mainly due to retail investors actively buying near the 3600 USD level. However, cautious sentiment in the market still persists. Since March of this year, Ethereum has repeatedly failed to break through the psychological barrier of 4000 USD, coupled with a decline in its ecosystem's TVL and DEX trading volume share compared to competitors, on-chain activity fatigue has intensified investors' concerns.

In terms of regulation, the SEC chairman announced the launch of a "crypto project" at the full committee level, aimed at making the United States a global center for crypto assets by revising securities rules. The plan includes establishing clear token classification standards, updating custody rules, simplifying trading licenses, creating principled regulatory pathways for DeFi and tokenized assets, and introducing an "innovation exemption" mechanism.

In the traditional financial sector, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, officially stepped down from the board, marking the end of his era at the company, while Bridgewater has brought in the Brunei Sovereign Wealth Fund as a new major shareholder. Additionally, design giant Figma successfully went public and it was disclosed that they hold a large amount of Bitcoin, soaring 250% at opening and rising another 25% in after-hours trading, currently reported at $115. It is said that Figma holds 700,000 BTC and plans to increase its holdings.

Key Data (As of August 1, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily spot trading volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (Year-to-date +11.05%), daily spot trading volume is $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.23 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 47.95%/52.05%
• Sector Changes: NFT down 8.98%; Meme down 8.73%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 160,329 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $630 million, including $151 million in BTC liquidations, $182 million in ETH liquidations, and $37.32 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (118359.86 USD), Lower Channel Line (116016.10 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (3687.83 USD), Lower Channel Line (3614.81 USD)

ETF Flows (as of July 31)

• Bitcoin ETF: -115 million USD, first net outflow after a net inflow in the past 5 days
• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, sustained 20 days of net inflow

Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong begins implementing the Stablecoin Regulation
• Trump says the tariff deadline will not be postponed, deadline is August 1.
• Indonesia will increase the cryptocurrency trading tax rate on August 1.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 1.27% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $188 million.
• GoPlus Security (GPS) will unlock approximately 542 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 20.42% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $11.6 million.
• ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 9.9 million USD.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on August 2, which is 0.64% of the current circulation, worth approximately $25 million.
• US July unemployment rate: Previous value 4.10%, Expected value 4.20% (August 1, 20:30)
• The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the US for July is ( people): previous value 14.7, expected value 11.

Top 100 largest market cap declines today: Pump.fun down 19.1%, SPX6900 down 15.4%, HEX down 14.5%, Pudgy Penguins down 12%, PulseX down 11.9%.

Hot News

• Strategy Q2 achieved operating revenue of 14 billion USD and a net profit of 10 billion USD
• Mill City Ventures successfully completed a $450 million private placement and launched the SUI treasury strategy.
• U.S. stock market close: Three major indexes all fell, new stock Figma surged 256%
• A trading platform increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing the total holdings to 11776 coins.
• White House: Will impose a 39% tariff on Swiss goods and raise the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35%.
• "The ancient giant whale holding 3963 BTC for 14.5 years" has sold 180 BTC again.
• Galaxy Report: Corporate cryptocurrency assets holdings exceed $100 billion
• The core PCE price index in the US for June is 2.8% year-on-year, and the core PCE price index for June is 0.3% month-on-month.
• Pudgy Penguins CEO: The team has participated in U.S. crypto legislation, and the PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.
• Data: The total value of the ETH treasury reserves of 64 entities has exceeded 10 billion USD.
• The listed company xTAO holds 16 million USD in TAO, making it the largest publicly-held coin company in Bittensor.
• Kaia native USDT logs into tourist spots in South Korea, where visitors can exchange cash at stablecoin ATMs.
• DoubleZero launches a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces the staking token dzSOL.