Has the top of the crypto market been reached? Nearly one-fifth of indicators have issued alerts.

Every round of bull market in the crypto market not only creates immense wealth but also generates numerous illusions of wealth. When market sentiment is high, few investors can remain calm and exit at the right time. In the face of severe market fluctuations, how to reasonably exit near the peak and avoid asset losses caused by deep corrections requires us to comprehensively analyze multiple market indicators.

This article analyzes 15 commonly used market top warning indicators and finds that about one-fifth of the indicators have reached warning levels in 2024, including the Bitcoin Rhodl ratio, USDT current wealth management interest rate, and altcoin seasonal index. In this situation, how should investors respond to the subsequent developments in the market?

1. Analysis of Key Indicators

1. AHR999 Hoarding Indicator

This indicator is used to assist in Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategies, taking into account short-term yield and price deviation.

Current status: The indicator value is 1.21, in the wait-and-see range, it is recommended to remain cautious.

2. AHR999 escape top indicator

This is a supporting tool for the coin accumulation indicator, specifically designed to identify market top areas. It determines whether the market is overheated by observing the degree of price deviation from the long-term trend.

Current status: The indicator value is 2.48, and there has not yet been a clear top signal in this cycle.

3. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

This indicator predicts potential market tops by comparing the relationship between the 111-day and 350-day moving averages.

Current status: The two moving averages are still quite far apart, and no top signal has appeared yet. The next crossover is expected to occur around October 2025.

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The rainbow chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides the Bitcoin price range into 9 different color bands.

Current status: The price is in the green zone, indicating that the valuation is relatively reasonable and no top signals have appeared.

5. Bitcoin terminal price index

This indicator can effectively filter out market speculation factors and reflect the true value of the Bitcoin network.

Current status: Not yet reached the top area.

6. Bitcoin market capitalization ratio

This indicator reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the entire crypto market and is usually used to assess market cycles and capital flows.

Current status: Market cap share is about 60%, in a relatively balanced range.

7. Bitcoin CBBI Index

CBBI is a comprehensive index that integrates multiple technical indicators and on-chain data, capable of effectively identifying the turning points of bull and bear cycles.

Current status: The index value is 79, indicating that the market is slightly overheated but has not yet reached its peak.

8. Bitcoin MVRV Z Index

This indicator assesses the market cycle by comparing the deviation between market capitalization and realized value.

Current status: The index is 2.5, not yet at its peak.

9. Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio

The Rhodl ratio is a composite on-chain indicator that assesses the behavior characteristics of coin holders over different periods to determine potential market turning points.

Current Status: Currently not in the red alert zone, but this indicator entered the peak range during November 2024.

10. Bitcoin Meyer Multiple

This indicator assesses the relative valuation level of the market by comparing the current price of Bitcoin to its 200-day moving average.

Current status: The index is 1.26, the market is in an overbought state, but it has not yet peaked.

11. Number of consecutive days of net outflow for ETFs

This indicator tracks the fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs, and consecutive days of net outflows often reflect the confidence of institutional investors.

Current status: Continuous net outflow for 1 day, which falls within the normal market fluctuation range. The maximum continuous period in this cycle is 8 days, and there has been no occurrence of 10 days.

12. The proportion of ETF in BTC

This indicator reflects the proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs to the total circulation, used to assess institutional participation.

Current status: The proportion is close to 6%, indicating that institutional participation is in a phase of healthy growth.

13. USDT Flexible Investment

The USDT savings account interest rate is an important indicator of the cost of capital in the market, reflecting the overall liquidity condition of the crypto market.

Current status: Interest rate is about 6.68%, at a normal level. However, during March 2024, this indicator entered the peak range, reaching 65%.

14. Altcoin Season Index

This indicator is used to determine whether the market has entered a period of active altcoins.

Current status: The index is 41, however, during December 2024, the indicator had entered the peak range, reaching 88.

15. Institutional Investor Cost Indicator

The indicator tracks the average holding cost of Bitcoin for major institutional investors, serving as a benchmark for institutional investors.

Current status: A large institutional investor has an average cost of about $60,000, which is within the institutional profit range.

2. Market Insights and Investment Recommendations

Although only some indicators currently show top signals, this does not mean that the entire market has definitively reached a peak. However, if investors believe there is a risk of a market peak, they may consider the following strategies:

1. Develop a phased reduction plan and do not expect a perfect top timing.

2. Consider cashing out some profits into stablecoins or fiat currencies, rather than moving towards higher-risk small-cap tokens.

3. It's better to reduce your position in advance at a high point than to miss the opportunity. Taking profits is not the end of investment, but rather a way to accumulate funds for the next round.

It is important to remember that every market peak represents a wealth opportunity for some investors, while also being a wealth trap for the majority. The opportunities presented by the market are equal for every participant, but it is often the well-prepared investors who are able to seize those opportunities. Staying rational during market euphoria and exiting entirely during the frenzy is often more challenging than buying at the bottom.