Crypto Market Biweekly Analysis: Ethereum Strong Rebound, Moving Average Breakthrough Strategy Annualized Yield 127%

The overall trend of the crypto market has shown an upward trajectory in the past two weeks, with Ethereum standing out particularly. Bitcoin has risen from around $78,000 to nearly $105,000, an increase of 34%. Ethereum has surged significantly from around $1,600 to about $2,600, with an increase of over 60%.

Despite the price strengthening, market sentiment remains cautious. The long-short ratio of Ethereum is fluctuating wildly, reflecting active short-term trading, with bears not significantly retreating. In the futures market, Ethereum saw stronger capital inflows in early May, but overall market leverage risk remains high. After a concentration of short liquidations in early May, there was another long liquidation on May 12, indicating an intensification of market divergence.

The quantitative analysis uses the "Dense Moving Average Breakthrough Strategy" to backtest the Ethereum/USDT 2-hour level data. With optimal parameter selection, the strategy achieves an annualized return of 127.59%, far exceeding the -46.05% of the Ethereum Buy and Hold strategy during the same period. The core logic of the strategy is to observe the convergence of multiple short- to medium-term moving averages to capture the timing of price breakthroughs through the moving average band for trading.

The best parameter combination is:

• percentage_threshold = 1.4 (maximum moving average distance limit)
• tp_sl_ratio = 10 (dynamic take profit margin)

The strategy performed excellently during the backtesting period, achieving stable capital appreciation while effectively controlling downside risk. The maximum drawdown was kept below 15%, and the risk-adjusted return compared to (ROMAD) reached 8.61%.

Overall, the recent crypto market shows characteristics of "strong price upward movement, while sentiment remains cautious". Although prices are strengthening, market sentiment and capital momentum have not yet reached a consensus. Against this backdrop, the dense moving average breakout strategy demonstrates good trend-following ability and drawdown control effects through systematic parameter optimization and dynamic risk control, providing a practical strategic framework for quantitative trading.