PEPE price prediction: Whale retreat + derivation capital outflow, may fall to 0.000009 USD

As of August 26, Pepe (PEPE) has experienced a continuous fall for three days, with a big dump of nearly 9.88% at the start of this week, followed by a brief rebound of about 1%, but it is still below the key psychological level of $0.00001000. On-chain and derivation data released simultaneously show bearish signals, indicating that this meme coin may face further dumping pressure in the short term.

Whale selling off, profit token ratio drops to a two-month low

(Source: Santiment)

Santiment data shows that the number of large wallet holders continues to decline:

The number of addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion PEPE decreased from 41,506 (monthly high) on August 9 to 41,058.

The number of addresses holding more than 1 billion PEPE has decreased from 9,815 on August 15 to 9,725.

(Source: Santiment)

The proportion of in-the-money tokens (tokens bought below the current price) has decreased to 37.63%, marking a two-month low, indicating a reduction in profit-taking and increased selling pressure.

Funds are withdrawn from the derivation market, and bears dominate

CoinGlass data:

PEPE open interest (OI) has decreased by 8% within 24 hours to $556.95 million, indicating capital outflow.

The financing rate has dropped to -0.0168%, and short sellers are willing to pay a premium to suppress prices.

The long-short ratio has dropped to 0.8975, with active short positions increasing.

These data reflect a shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion, increasing the likelihood of price pressure in the short term.

Technical Analysis: Resistance Turnaround + Death Cross Risk

(Source: Trading View)

Key price level:

0.00000986 support level has turned into resistance level.

If the fall continues, the next support area is at 0.00000900 USD (green zone on the daily chart).

Moving Average Structure:

The 50-day and 100-day EMA are trending downwards and approaching the 200-day EMA, increasing the risk of a death cross.

Momentum Indicator:

The MACD and signal line continue to decline in the negative zone, indicating a return of bearish momentum.

RSI is at 40, close to the oversold area, with buying momentum continuing to weaken.

Rebound Conditions and Upside Targets

If PEPE can effectively recover 0.00000986 USD and stabilize, it will have the potential to challenge the 200-day EMA (0.00001115 USD). However, the current path of least resistance still points downward, unless there is a significant improvement in on-chain and derivation data.

Conclusion and Price Prediction

In the short term, the trend of PEPE is bearish:

Bearish scenario: If the selling pressure continues, the price may test the support at 0.00000900 USD.

Bullish scenario: Recovering to $0.00000986 and breaking out with volume would hope for a rebound to $0.00001115.

Investors should closely monitor the changes in whale holdings, OI trends, and financing rates, as these will be key signals for determining the next trend of PEPE.