XRP Price Prediction: Why the End of the SEC Lawsuit Did Not Serve as a Catalyst? Bitcoin Falls Below Key Support Level | Market Outlook Analysis

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the recent significant pullback in the prices of XRP and Bitcoin (BTC). It explores several key factors including the lack of immediate price catalysts, the latency in spot ETF approvals, policy uncertainty ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole seminar, and the continuous outflow of funds from the crypto market. It offers investors potential turning points in October and forecasts on future price movements.

XRP Joins Broad Crypto Market Pullback, Lacks Price Catalysts

As the SEC lawsuit against Ripple approaches its conclusion, XRP has recently faced strong selling pressure. Investor hopes for a swift end to the Ripple case and the approval of the pending XRP Spot ETF are gradually fading, leaving XRP more exposed to broader market dynamics. It is worth noting that since the SEC and Ripple filed a joint motion to dismiss and withdrew their appeal, XRP has dropped by 15%. Investors are awaiting the approval of the joint motion to dismiss by the U.S. Court of Appeals. However, the end of the Ripple case is unlikely to trigger a key event that could stimulate a price breakthrough. Key events for XRP investors include:

  • XRP Spot ETF Approval: This week, the SEC will postpone its decision on the SOL Spot ETF until October. This move reduces the likelihood of an early launch for the XRP Spot ETF, with its final deadline also in October. The delay of cryptocurrency ETFs has affected market sentiment.
  • Ripple's application for a banking license in the United States is pending, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has 120 days to make a decision, with possible results in October. This is an important step for Ripple's banking business expansion.
  • Voting on the "CLARITY Act": Congress is on recess until September, halting the cryptocurrency legislative process. Blockchain policy news needs to be closely monitored. While these key events are crucial for the price prospects of XRP, Ripple's growing strength as an alternative to SWIFT may become another tailwind for XRP. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently predicted that it is likely to capture 14% of SWIFT's transaction volume in the next five years. Given the scale of SWIFT's remittance business, this is significant for the adoption rate of XRP and the development of cryptocurrency in cross-border payments. As XRP falls below $3, the events in October could be crucial for XRP and the broader crypto market.

XRP Price Outlook: Focus on Appeal Withdrawal and Spot ETF

XRP plummeted 6.56% on Tuesday, August 19, following a 0.88% decline in the previous trading day, closing at $2.8619. The token underperformed the broader market, with the overall crypto market capitalization dropping 3.43% to $3.74 trillion. In the short term, the price outlook for XRP depends on several key catalysts, including:

  • Headlines related to the XRP Spot ETF.
  • The adoption of XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
  • Ripple's application for a banking license in the United States.
  • Updates related to SWIFT.
  • Legislative progress. If it can break through the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bulls may target the psychological resistance level of $3. Staying above $3 may pave the way for an increase towards $3.10. However, if it falls below $2.8, it may test the low of $2.7254 on August 3.

Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Market Anxiety Ahead of Jackson Hole Seminar

While XRP continues to decline due to disappointment over the Spot ETF, Bitcoin (BTC) has closed below the critical support level of $115,000 for the first time since August 5. Recent economic data related to inflation in the U.S. has intensified market uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy stance ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on Friday, August 22. He may signal a latency in interest rate cuts to continue assessing the impact of tariffs on import prices and inflation. The Fed's delay in interest rate cuts will keep borrowing costs high and strengthen the dollar's position, thus affecting BTC's value storage status. On the other hand, if multiple rate cuts are supported, it may soften the dollar, lower borrowing costs, and boost demand for BTC and other risk assets.

Continuous Outflow of Funds from the US Crypto Market Spot ETF

Concerns about Chairman Powell's monetary policy stance have also affected the fund flows of the Spot BTC ETF. According to Farside Investors, the U.S. BTC Spot ETF market reported a net outflow of $121.7 million on August 18. Fund outflows accelerated on August 19. Key flows include:

  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had a net outflow of $246.9 million.
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported a net outflow of $115.5 million.
  • Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) net outflow of $86.8 million.
  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported a net outflow of $63.3 million. With the flow data for BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) pending, the total outflow of the U.S. BTC Spot ETF has reached $523.3 million, possibly extending the fund outflow streak to three trading days. The trend of BTC fund flows remains crucial for supply and demand balance and the price movement of the token.

BTC Price Outlook: Focus on the Fed and Spot ETF

Bitcoin fell 2.94% on Tuesday, August 19, following a 1.03% drop the previous day, closing at $112,881. Looking ahead, several key events will determine the recent price movement. These include:

  • Fed monetary policy stance: FOMC meeting minutes, comments from Fed officials, Jackson Hole symposium, and speeches by Fed Chair Powell.
  • Services PMI and US unemployment claims data.
  • Legislative progress on Capitol Hill.
  • BTC Spot ETF capital flow. Potential scenarios:
  • Bearish scenario: Legislative hurdles, rising stagflation risks in the US, hawkish comments from the Fed, and outflows from ETFs. This combination of factors could drag BTC down to $110,000 and threaten the psychological support level of $100,000.
  • Bullish scenario: Bipartisan support for the "CLARITY Act", easing recession risks in the US economy, dovish signals from the Fed, and inflows into ETFs. In this case, BTC may target the historical high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Pushing or Hindering Breakthroughs

Traders should track the following key developments to determine whether XRP and BTC will pull back:

  • News related to the XRP Spot ETF.
  • Legislative News: The CLARITY Act.
  • US economic data.
  • Fed comments: hawkish or dovish signals.
  • ETF market capital flow: a crucial flow trend for the supply and demand balance of BTC.

Conclusion

Overall, the crypto market is undergoing a pullback, lacking immediate positive catalysts, while being troubled by macro uncertainty and capital outflows. Investors should focus on the potential bullish events for XRP in October and the Fed's policy path, which will be key in determining whether XRP and Bitcoin can reverse the current downturn and restart an upward trend. Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, and close attention should be paid to the aforementioned blockchain industry dynamics.

XRP1.25%
BTC0.32%
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