Bitcoin Fluctuates At $118,000: Is The 2025 Market Rise Pausing Or Restarting?

The price volatility of Bitcoin at the end of July 2025 has reignited the debate over whether the bullish cryptocurrency market is slowing down or simply pausing. Trading near $118,000 on July 30, Bitcoin remains close to its all-time high of around $123,000, but has shown signs of a fall in recent sessions. Meanwhile, Ether is holding a price near $3,800 after a bullish surge in July that saw prices increase by over 50% for the month, based on data from CoinMarketCap.

The Altcoin Season Index - often regarded as a measure of the altcoin season of the market - has dropped to around 36. This level indicates that Bitcoin is still outperforming most altcoins, limiting the bullish range. Traditionally, broader growth of mid-cap tokens is an important sign of an overall bull run, and the current index shows that traders are still weighing their options carefully. The participation of organizations continues to provide support. An executive order issued in March 2025 established a strategic Bitcoin reserve fund for the United States, reinforcing the role of this asset in national holdings. At the same time, corporate treasuries have allocated over $86 billion into cryptocurrency this year. These moves signify a greater level of exposure for large institutions compared to previous cycles. JPMorgan estimates that over $60 billion in new capital has flowed into the cryptocurrency market as of now in 2025, indicating the strength of the bull run. Analysts believe that this capital influx is driven by ETF adoption, venture capital funding, and restored confidence following clearer regulations in certain jurisdictions. The presence of institutions has helped sustain prices, even as speculative trading activity has subsided. Ethereum is one of the coins that benefits greatly from this trend. With ETF capital inflows driving demand, ETH surged in July. Business Insider notes that institutional investors are one of the main drivers of this bullish run, pushing the price above $3,800. Daily trading volume continues to exceed $15 billion, indicating strong liquidity. Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has weakened. An analysis shows that the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is near 0.2, indicating that this asset is becoming more independent from traditional risk markets. This separation could make Bitcoin more attractive if the stock market remains volatile. The Cryptocurrency Market Shows Signs of Bullish Tension Not all indicators are optimistic. The increasing dominance of Bitcoin—still above 60%, according to TradingView's BTC.D chart—shows that capital has not yet been widely transferred to altcoins, slowing the onset of a true altcoin season. This move limits the depth of the bullish phase and raises the question of whether the market has entered the typical expansion phase of previous bull runs. Analysts remain divided. Reports from various organizations predict that the price of Bitcoin could rise to between 150,000 and 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025, based on liquidity cycles and ETF capital flows. Others point out that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September could be a barrier if interest rate cuts do not materialize. Volatility remains a prominent feature. Daily volatility from 3% to 5% is common, and traders are balancing between long-term optimism and short-term caution. The outstanding performance and stable capital flow of Ethereum contrast with the slower pace of Bitcoin, while most altcoins remain quiet. Ethereum is one of the coins that greatly benefits from this trend. With ETF capital inflow driving demand, ETH surged in July. Business Insider notes that institutional investors are one of the main drivers of this bull run, pushing the price above $3,800. Daily trading volume continues to exceed $15 billion, indicating strong liquidity. Moreover, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has weakened. An analysis shows that the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is around 0.2, indicating that this asset is becoming more independent from traditional risk markets. This separation could make Bitcoin more attractive if the stock market continues to be volatile. The Cryptocurrency Market Shows Signs of Bullish Tension Not all indicators are optimistic. The increasing dominance of Bitcoin—still above 60%, according to TradingView's BTC.D chart—suggests that capital has not yet been widely shifted to altcoins, slowing the onset of a true altcoin season. This move limits the depth of the bullish phase and raises the question of whether the market has entered the typical expansion phase of previous bull runs. Analysts remain divided. Reports from various organizations predict that the price of Bitcoin could rise to between 150,000 and 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025, based on liquidity cycles and ETF capital flows. Others point out that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September could be a hurdle if interest rate cuts do not materialize. Volatility remains a prominent feature. Daily volatility of 3% to 5% is common, and traders are balancing long-term optimism with short-term caution. The outstanding performance and stable capital flow of Ethereum contrasts with the slower pace of Bitcoin, while most altcoins remain quiet. Currently, the bull run has not yet ended, but it is showing signs of tension. Prices remain high, backed by strong institutional support, and adoption continues to rise. However, the lack of a widespread altcoin rally and the instability surrounding monetary policy keep the market in a state of limbo.