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Bitcoin's (BTC) increase of 7.6% between April 6 and April 8, reached an intraday peak of $72,747 and sparked widespread speculation about the underlying causes.
While some may hastily point to the inflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) as the primary factor, this perspective overlooks the broader motivations for buyers to push the price higher. It is more plausible that a range of macroeconomic factors played a key role in Bitcoin's recent price rally.
Is Ethena’s stablecoin behind Bitcoin’s surge to $72,000?
It seems misguided to assert that the surge in BTC's value was solely due to the purchase of $500 million in Bitcoin by the Ethena stablecoin USDCe as collateral. For instance, MicroStrategy’s acquisition of 9,245 Bitcoin, valued at over $600 million on March 19, did not prevent a 13.7% drop in BTC price in the subsequent six days. Given Bitcoin's daily spot volumes exceeding $10 billion, such inflows are relatively insignificant.
Investors' expectations regarding the economy and the cost of capital should not be underestimated. Periods of increased liquidity and monetary policies aimed at stimulating consumption and growth usually benefit scarce assets, a trend that is magnified during times of persistent inflation when salaries and prices rise to match the increasing availability of money.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently indicated in a shareholder letter that the resilience of the U.S. economy could "lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect," as reported by Yahoo Finance. This insight helps partially explain why gold ETF instruments are trading at a premium in China, as investors brace for inflationary pressures amid the U.S.'s precarious fiscal debt situation.