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The Federal Reserve, an institution known for its unified opinions, has recently shown rare disagreements on the issue of interest rate cuts. The minutes from the July meeting, which will be released this Thursday, will reveal the severity of this internal division for the first time, something that has not occurred in the past thirty years.
Divergence in interest rate cuts emerges

At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 29-30, despite the final decision to keep the key interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, this decision faced public opposition from two board members - Bowman and Waller. Both of them favored a 25 basis point rate cut.
After the meeting, the public statements from Federal Reserve officials also showed different positions. Although most remain cautious about the uncertainties brought by tariffs, a notable trend is that several candidates considered potential successors to Federal Reserve Chair Powell have strongly voiced support for interest rate cuts. This has led to significant attention on the upcoming release of the meeting minutes.

The meeting minutes reveal internal dynamics.
As the Federal Reserve meetings are not open to the public, the minutes become the only window for investors to understand the internal discussions. Market analyst Ed Yardeni pointed out that the minutes will fill in critical gaps, revealing how firm the "dovish" stance is and whether the "hawkish" attitude towards inflation has become entrenched.
Since the July meeting, the economic situation has also changed somewhat: the non-farm payroll data indicates a further slowdown in the labor market, while the inflation report shows conflicting signals, with consumer prices easing but producer costs rising.

Political pressure and independence crisis
At the same time, the ongoing political pressure from the Trump administration has also put the independence of the Federal Reserve to the test. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant and market expert Komal Sri-Kumar both believe that the White House's statements indicate that the risk of economic decisions being influenced by political pressure is increasing.

Despite the Federal Reserve officials' consistent insistence that their decisions are based solely on the dual goals of maximum employment and price stability, maintaining this facade of neutrality has become increasingly difficult in the context of competition for the chair position. Sri-Kumar believes that the Fed's independence relies more on the shared principle of "monetary policy free from partisan interference" rather than legal protections, and this principle is currently facing severe challenges. Investors will closely monitor the minutes for clues on whether political interference is eroding the independence of Fed policy.