As soon as the market rises significantly, some people predict how high it will go in the future, and a bull run will explode.

As long as the market continues to fall for a few days, there will be predictions about how much it will drop next, and the bull run is coming to an end.
In the past couple of days, the market of the leader has pulled back, and some people are starting to say that this round is a trap for the bulls, and that there will be a big drop next. When it rises, people are bullish, and when it drops, they are bearish. Do we still need professional analysis? Isn't it enough to buy and sell based on the market trends? The answer is obviously no; otherwise, anyone could make money.
A bull run is a relay race, not a 100-meter sprint. Each rising cycle in the crypto market has its intrinsic operating logic. Grasping this logic is often more crucial than fixating on the market, as it can indicate where funds are currently flowing and where you should focus your layout. To survive in the crypto space for the long term, it relies on thinking about the underlying logic to judge future trends, rather than judging future prices through short-term market movements.
For most friends who are new to the circle, the anxiety about holding positions will actually always exist, especially now that they have just seen some hope with their accounts showing floating profits. Many people fail to achieve big results because they develop psychological issues during this high volatility period, leading to reckless actions. They either listen to others talking about wanting to do some small swings, or they hear someone say they want to open a short position, or they listen to someone suggesting chasing certain worthless coins. They always listen to others, but they never have their own independent thoughts and operational plans.
Recently, ETH rose from 1400 to 4700, and some people in the community started predicting that ETH would reach 8k, 10k, or even 20k. In fact, most of the people who are optimistic about ETH now were still complaining about ETH and praising SOL just a few months ago, believing that this second-tier coin was garbage and would definitely drop below 1k. As seasoned investors, we have experienced too many scenarios like this. Indeed, everyone has the right to express their own opinions, but some shouts in public are profit-driven. If you blindly follow along with your hard-earned money without thinking, the subscription fees can earn you a little, the trading fee rebates can earn you a little, and the liquidation losses can also earn you a little. Have you heard of the left hand and right hand both having positions?
If you don't, just try it a few times, and you'll understand.
It was talked about a long time ago, the reason the market is dragging is that the interest rate cut cycle for 2025 has not yet started, and the trading volume of contracts has already surpassed that of spot trading, making the market trading methods completely different from before. The current time point is the most torturous, seasoned investors all know that when the price reaches this position, it is the turning point where the bulls and bears insult each other. The market at the critical point is like this, allowing the firm bulls to see hope, while also giving the brave bears the courage to roll up their sleeves and work hard. If there was not a glimmer of hope, how could anyone place a bet?
Regarding the analysis of market trends, we have actually talked a lot before. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bull run, and the overall direction has not peaked yet. The daily chart is undergoing a short-term correction, and it should continue to fluctuate and correct in the coming days. I will wait for the signal of a bottom reversal based on the psychological support levels at whole numbers in the market. For BTC, I am looking at 11W, and for ETH, I am looking at 4K. Even if these values are broken, I will still activate my short-term small positions to engage in some small swings.
As for long-term positions, the necessary adjustments have been made, and the bullets for short positions are ready. Most of the cryptocurrencies held have seen normal gains, and as for how the final returns will turn out, we can only leave it to time to verify.
As August approaches mid-month without us realizing, BTC and ETH have slowly climbed up from the lows of early April during the Qingming Festival. After four months, according to past cycles, after the bull run starts, it generally takes about 5-6 months to reach the peak. This means that if we rely on the trends of the previous cycle at this moment, the final peak may appear in the next two months.
Although some well-known analysts believe that given the current economic environment and institutional holdings, this bull run cycle will extend into the first half of 2026, and BTC and ETH may even experience a "long and exhausting" bull market, there is a certain probability to this claim. However, many retail investors do not actually hold these two leading coins. Even seasoned investors were significantly left behind when ETH saw a large pullback in the first half of the year. Therefore, in response to this expectation, I suggest that you build a data model based on your own position. First, set a target selling price to ensure profits are secured, and then use a phased DCA strategy for selling. Even if the highest price you expected does not materialize, leaving a portion of your position to hold these two coins long-term may not be a bad thing. Perhaps during Trump's term, it will give you a big surprise?
What everyone is most afraid of is that there will be no obvious altcoin season next, or that the altcoins in hand are just a flash in the pan, or that they will be in a slump. I have always believed that there will still be an altcoin season. Previously, I have discussed this a few times in the dynamic updates and chatted intermittently with some friends in the comment section, and everyone believes that the probability of a bull run in altcoins is still quite high. But if you haven't positioned yourself in mainstream altcoins now, the upcoming time is likely to have little to do with you.
Why do I still judge that there will be a bull run in the altcoin season? I've organized my thoughts and will analyze from the following four directions why the altcoin market in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still worth looking forward to.
First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, the consensus is still clear: every round of bull run is driven by BTC attracting funds, which then flow into ETH, and finally spread to smaller market cap altcoins. This is not a man-made operation, but a natural phenomenon resulting from market consensus and human greed. The cyclical pattern of this fund flow will not change due to individual will. As long as there is a consensus on the cyclical nature of bulls and bears in the market, and as long as investors still experience greed and fear, the altcoin season will definitely come.
You might say that it is currently an institution-led bull run, and institutions look down on those altcoins. After experiencing the market in 2024-2025, I increasingly understand that the world is just a makeshift stage, institutions come in different sizes, and institutions are also greedy. Are the funds under Trump considered institutions? Is Meitu Xiuxiu considered an institution? Even our disguised GJ team, are they institutions? The games played by institutions create market fluctuations, and the games played by institutions will also increase the circulation of market chips. As long as there is enthusiasm and liquidity, capital tends to seek profit.
Capital has always pursued maximization of returns, and the influx of institutional funds has significantly accelerated the layout in the crypto market. Particularly, since May, there has been an unprecedented influx of funds into ETH ecosystem-related projects, which has directly boosted market confidence and demand. When the valuations of BTC and ETH reach high levels, large-scale capital inflows will drive up coin prices; however, the return on investment continues to decline. At this point, capital will inevitably shift towards smaller market cap altcoins, which can more easily achieve substantial short-term gains. This balance of returns and risks is the core logic driving the continuous flow of funds. Of course, it has been reminded several times long ago that institutional funds will most likely flow only into mainstream altcoins with higher market caps, fundamental applications, high market holdings, good narratives, and a certain age, especially those with attributes of the United States and those that meet the ETF listing criteria.
Secondly, technology is the key factor driving the continuous flow of funds, as market capital always chases the latest hotspots. Each bull run brings new technology drives and conceptual narratives, and new starting points attract the attention of retail investors, providing ample space for the speculation of the altcoin market. Despite the emergence of inscriptions and symbols in 2024, which have sacrificed a large number of retail investors during the MEME craze, as we enter 2025, we can clearly feel the gradual rise of hotspots in multiple areas such as high-performance supply chain expansion solutions (L1 public chains), the integration of AI and blockchain, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). These areas will provide new market expectations and more easily attract incremental capital from outside, in search of the next potential asset with a hundredfold growth.
Thirdly, reviewing the market trends from the end of 2023 to now, from the perspective of chip distribution, many high-quality mainstream altcoins have completed the gathering of chips, especially new public chains or high market-cap functional coins. Large funds, through a year and a half of pump and dump, should have completed the chip layout at low positions, which has also given me a relatively clear and definite judgment on future trends.
Referencing the mainstream cryptocurrencies of 2024 such as XRP, TRX, SUI, and BNB, and then observing ETH, ADA, LINK, UNI, LTC, AAVE, DOGE, PEPE, etc. in 2025, if you can hold firmly at this moment without expecting too much, and patiently wait for changes in market sentiment and the resonance of opportunities, you are likely to steadily and easily capture a 1-2x doubling market. However, it is important to remind you that this is no longer the best time to enter the market. Friends who have been paying attention to my updates for a long time will have a clearer understanding of the reasons behind this.
Of course, you can also choose to strategically invest in some leading projects in the ETH layer 2 ecosystem or other sectors, including ondo, op, ena, arb, pol, fil, ton, etc. However, these types of coins that rely on market trends and capital rotation carry much higher risks compared to the previous high market cap established projects.
As for why XRP, SOL, BNB, TRX and the like are not recommended, it's because they have already been pumped in 2024, and the upward potential is limited, with not a very high cost-performance ratio.
Fourth, from a macroeconomic perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 95%, and the trade war tariffs have also been postponed. The global economy is showing a clear trend of liquidity easing, and major central banks are continuously releasing liquidity. While writing this paragraph today, I also saw news about the presidents of Russia and Ukraine discussing a ceasefire. Aside from the interest rate hike in Japan, I can't think of any other potential black swan events in the future, so in the coming months, the overall funding environment in the market should be relatively loose, which will undoubtedly enhance the risk appetite of institutional funds.
When ETH hits the 5000 mark and experiences a volume-driven rise (similar to BTC breaking through 73,000 and shooting towards 100,000), and several altcoins in the market surge by 100%-300% in a single day, retail investors will inevitably experience FOMO. Mainstream altcoins with a high level of consensus are likely to become the asset class that benefits the most in such an environment.
The signs of this situation have actually appeared. The rise of OKB can be seen as a starting signal. Even if the current market experiences a relatively extreme 20%-30% retracement, I firmly believe that the current direction will not change. The bull run has not yet ended; it just needs to be extended. The high peaks of BTC and ETH are likely to occur again, and a localized altcoin bull run will inevitably come.
Of course, opportunities and risks coexist, and everyone's personality and holding situations are different. Therefore, I would still advise you to carefully consider rational decisions. Only by thoroughly thinking through your operational plan and seriously simulating your operating strategy can you possibly seize your bull run profits in the end among the wild wolves.
Remember, the bigger the waves, the more expensive the fish ☕ I enjoy walking with friends who have a high level of understanding. If you have different opinions, feel free to chat in the comments. #机构以太坊储备破1000万枚#