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Today's big dump interpretation, Unfavourable Information from the news!
Why is inflation far beyond expectations considered Unfavourable Information?
Published value (4.9%) > Expected value (4.4%) and Previous value (4.5%)
First, it indicates that consumers' worries about price increases in the coming year have significantly intensified. This forces the Federal Reserve to take action; persistently high inflation will compel the Federal Reserve to curb demand through interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction.
Second, the expected real interest rates are rising, and the market expects that the nominal interest rate (rate hike) will rise more than the inflation rate, leading to an increase in the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Third, history shows that when this data remains above 4%, the Federal Reserve usually takes a tougher stance (such as the consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes in 2022).
In summary, interest rate cuts are a huge favourable factor for the crypto market (capital hedging), and vice versa. The expectation of inflation has reduced the probability of an interest rate cut in September, so it's Unfavourable Information! #美7月PPI年率高于预期#