Liquidity-Dominated Super-Speculation Era: Bitcoin, Global Trade and New Patterns in the Labor Market

The current global economy is in an unprecedented era of hyper-speculative capitalism. This era is characterized by liquidity-driven dynamics, finance policy dominance, and a deviation of the market from traditional economic logic. In this environment, investors and decision-makers need to reassess their strategies and expectations.

Bitcoin's Abnormal Trend

The performance of Bitcoin is becoming a typical case of this era. Even in a high interest rate environment, the price of Bitcoin is still approaching historical highs. This phenomenon may stem from several factors:

1. The global M2 money supply remains at a high level, providing ample liquidity to the market.
2. There are a large number of short positions in the market, providing potential momentum for further increases in Bitcoin.
3. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically reaches its peak 525 to 530 days after the halving.

Based on these factors, some analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach a peak of $135,000 to $150,000 around September 2025. However, this prediction still carries uncertainty, especially considering the potential for macroeconomic tightening policies.

Global Economic Overview

The U.S. economy is showing broader signs of slowdown. Consumer behavior is changing, with tighter credit card usage reflecting rising uncertainty. Housing affordability has reached a historic low, with 53% of middle-class income being spent on housing, setting a new record.

Central bank policies around the world are showing divergence. Some countries, such as Japan and Canada, are keeping interest rates unchanged, while Chile and South Africa have opted for early rate cuts due to slowing inflation and weak economic conditions. Although economic growth in the Eurozone is slightly above expectations, core inflation remains stable, and the European Central Bank may continue to adopt a cautious stance.

The momentum of China's economic recovery is weakening faster than expected, which may impact regional demand and supply chains.

The Impact of the US-Japan Trade Agreement

The latest US-Japan trade agreement will have a profound impact on the economies of both countries. The United States has imposed a 15% tariff on all imported goods from Japan, which, although lower than the previously threatened level, is still significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. This move may increase import costs and inflationary pressures in the United States.

Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the United States, but the specific terms remain unclear. This commitment may face enforcement issues, laying the groundwork for future disputes.

The agreement aims to shift more manufacturing activities to the United States, but how to fill positions has become a challenge against the backdrop of the current labor shortage and tightening immigration policies.

Changes in the Labor Market

Recently, the unemployment rate of university graduates has reached a ten-year high, with the gap between it and the overall unemployment rate of young workers being unusually narrow. This trend may be a warning sign of a softening white-collar job market.

Although generative AI is considered a factor impacting employment, its effects are currently limited to specific industries. A broader hiring slump may stem from policy uncertainties, including trade policies, the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates, and immigration restrictions.

The shortage of skilled workers has eased, which may lead to a stabilization or decrease in the wage premium for these positions.

India-UK Trade Agreement: A New Global Trade Landscape

The trade agreement reached between the UK and India marks a significant shift in the global trade landscape. The agreement reduces tariffs on more than 90% of UK exports to India, and it is expected that UK exports to India will grow by 60% by 2040.

India has reduced the import tariff on cars from 100% to 10%, a change that could reshape the automotive market landscape. However, quotas limit the total volume of imports, suppressing short-term commercial gains for UK car manufacturers.

India has significantly benefited from its tariff reductions, including lower consumer prices, increased domestic competition, and enhanced global competitiveness for businesses. About 50% of Indian export goods will enter the UK market duty-free, which will be advantageous for Indian exporters in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and food.

This agreement reflects a global trend: countries are seeking diversified trade partnerships to cope with the changes in the trade landscape brought about by U.S. tariff policies. India is actively seeking trade liberalization with the European Union, ASEAN, and even the United States, positioning itself as a key player in the reshaping of global trade.

In this era of hyper-speculative capitalism, investors and policymakers need to adapt to new economic realities and flexibly respond to the challenges posed by liquidity fluctuations and policy uncertainties. Traditional economic indicators may no longer suffice to explain market behavior, while liquidity and policy changes may become more significant influencing factors.