A降成名: Will the Fed sprinkle some sugar on the market?

Just when everyone thought Powell would never budge in his lifetime, the shoe of interest rate cuts actually started to drop! The latest data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in September has skyrocketed to 94.4%, which is 1 million times higher than the probability of you and me winning the lottery. The market has been waiting for this moment for a whole year.
First, the background: weak employment data, a decline in manufacturing prosperity, and consumer spending growth also starting to "creak". Everything is silently telling the Fed - "Dude, that's enough."
And this 94.4% is not a windfall from the sky, but an expectation forged by market forces. CME interest rate futures indicate that investors have almost written "September rate cut" on the cover of the script. Inflation continues to decline, the PCE index is on a downward trend, and core CPI seems to be slowly poisoned. The efforts of consumer prices to overcome inflation are finally nearing an end.
What will interest rate cuts bring? U.S. stock valuations cheer directly, U.S. Treasury yields tumble, the dollar shows slight fatigue, while gold and crypto assets await a gilded rise. And for us ordinary people? Lower loan rates, reduced debt costs—"mortgage slaves" might be able to take a slight breath now.
But don't get too excited. This rate cut might just be an "insurance rate cut" to prevent a resurgence of stagflation or an uncontrolled "soft landing." After all, Old Powell is not the kind and gentle central bank mother, but a tightening warrior walking a tightrope in armor. A single cut does not mean three consecutive cuts—don't mistake one piece of candy for an entire bag.
Summary: The Fed may be about to make a grand turnaround, and the market is eagerly preparing to celebrate. But don't forget, the reality is "expectation trading," and news realization may not necessarily lead to a surge. So if you want to go all in on U.S. stocks or buy the dip in BTC, ask yourself if you can handle the psychological gap of "rate cut realization - good news has been fully priced in." #打榜优质内容#