Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Institutional Driven Selective Bull Run, A New Round of Wealth Migration Quietly Begins

1. The macro turning point has arrived: Resonance of policy support and warming regulation

Starting from the third quarter of 2025, significant changes have occurred in the macro environment. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the margins has now transformed into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and the acceleration of global crypto regulation towards a "accommodative framework," the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

The macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning point. The market anticipates interest rate cuts within 2025, and real interest rates are expected to gradually decline from high levels. This opens up an upward channel for the valuation of digital assets. At the same time, fiscal expansion represented by the "Great American Plan" brings about a capital release effect, indirectly strengthening the marginal demand for digital assets.

The fundamental shift in regulatory attitudes deserves more attention. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change, with the approval of ETH staking ETFs marking the entry of yield-bearing digital assets into the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs, intending to create a replicable compliant financial product channel. This represents an essential shift in regulatory logic from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering."

The compliance race in the Asia region is also heating up. Financial hubs such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE are competing for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 projects. This means that stablecoins will become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

There are signs of a recovery in risk appetite in the traditional financial market. The S&P 500 hitting new highs, a rebound in tech stocks, and a warming IPO market all signal that risk capital is flowing back in. Capital is beginning to re-evaluate blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain structured yield assets.

Under the dual drive of policies and the market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather by a value reassessment process driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a more moderate yet powerful way.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Leading the Next Bull Run

What is most noteworthy in the current crypto market is the deep logic of chips transferring from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, the participant structure of the crypto market has undergone a historic "reshuffle": speculative users are marginalized, while institutional and corporate allocations have become the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulation of Bitcoin chips is accelerating towards "locking in". The scale of Bitcoin purchases by listed companies has surpassed the net purchases of ETFs during the same period, viewing it as a "strategic cash alternative". Behind this behavior pattern is a deep understanding of the expectation of global currency devaluation.

Financial infrastructure clears obstacles for institutional capital to flow in rapidly. The approval of the Ethereum staking ETF means that institutions are starting to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The expected approval of the Solana spot ETF opens up imaginative possibilities and will fundamentally change traditional asset managers' perceptions of crypto assets.

Enterprises directly participate in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation structure between traditional "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. This capital injection, colored by "industry mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout", aims to secure the core asset rights and revenue distribution rights of new financial infrastructure.

Traditional finance is actively laying out in the derivatives and on-chain liquidity sectors. The record high trading volumes of Solana futures and XRP futures on CME indicate that traditional trading institutions have included crypto assets in their strategic models. The entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds will enhance the market liquidity density and depth.

From the perspective of structural turnover, the decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players has reinforced the above trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, early whale wallets are less active, and on-chain search and wallet interaction data tend to stabilize, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period".

The "productization capability" of financial institutions has rapidly landed. From JPMorgan Chase and Fidelity to platforms like Robinhood and PayPal, all are expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only enables crypto assets to achieve "usability within the fiat currency system" but also provides them with richer financial attributes.

This round of structural turnover is essentially a deepening of the "financial commoditization" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted to institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable capital structure. An institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing.

3. The New Era of Altcoin Season: From General Rise to "Selective Bull Run"

The "Altcoin Season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the broad rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturity of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

The structural signals indicate that the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has made a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, with whale addresses accumulating large amounts of ETH in the short term, and large on-chain transactions occurring frequently. Meanwhile, retail sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

This time the altcoin market will be "each flying their own" rather than "flying together." ETF applications have become the anchor point for a new round of thematic structure. The Solana spot ETF is seen as the next "market consensus event." Asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real profit distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation," showing a differentiated evolution where the strong get stronger and the weak are eliminated.

The DeFi sector has also undergone fundamental changes. Users are shifting from "points airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi," where protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms have become core indicators for assessing asset value. Liquidity providers now place greater emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and potential risk structures.

Capital has become more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience integration have become key factors in determining the flow of funds. Infrastructure and composable protocols built around L1 public chains have become the new valuation core.

The speculative part of the market is also shifting. While Meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pumping" is over. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" has emerged, but it carries high risks and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

The core of this round of the altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, simplifying cross-chain UX, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade of the bull market.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local bursts". From long-term Bitcoin allocation to Solana ETF thematic trading, and then to the rotation strategy of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA treasury, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework becomes a prerequisite to navigate the volatility of the third quarter.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows show no signs of reversal, corporate treasuries continue to accumulate, and the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resistance to declines and a capital siphoning effect. Even if it hasn't reached a new high yet, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it is the most stable underlying asset in the current cycle.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic asset with explosive potential in Q3. Institutions like VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise have submitted applications for a SOL spot ETF, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is likely to be included in the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for preemptive positioning. This narrative will drive the governance tokens of SOL spot and its staking ecosystem, such as JTO, MNDE, and others.

DeFi portfolios are worth reconfiguring. The current focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, genuine yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects include SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., using an equal-weight allocation method to capture the relative returns of individual projects and reinvest profits.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, limiting it to within 5% of the total net asset value, and manage positions with an options mindset. Set clear stop-loss mechanisms, take-profit rules, and position limits. In particular, for contract targets introduced by mainstream exchanges such as Binance, a "quick in and out" strategy framework should be established.

Another key aspect of the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layouts. The market is currently transitioning from an "information vacuum" to a period of "intensive event releases." With the Solana ETF review node approaching, the market is expected to experience a wave of "policy + capital resonance" from mid-August to early September. Such event layouts should be anticipated in advance and gradually built up to avoid chasing high traps.

It is essential to focus on the momentum of structural alternatives. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and the promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration; projects like $H (Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA (AI+DePIN integration), supported by verifiable roadmaps and active communities, may become "hot spots" in the fringe sectors.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must shift to a hybrid strategy of "anchored by core, winged by events." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators—each part corresponds to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment where ETF capital is continuously expanding, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns."

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is underway.

Each cycle of bull and bear markets is essentially a periodic reshuffling of value reassessment, and the true transfer of wealth often occurs quietly amid chaos. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real earnings is brewing.

The role of Bitcoin has fundamentally changed, gradually becoming a reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises and a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of US ETFs has altered the previous "miner-exchange-retail" chip structure, building an underlying capital reservoir. In the future, the greatest influences on Bitcoin prices will be institutional buying records, allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, as well as the repricing of risk asset valuation systems based on macro policy expectations.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "systemic takeovers." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds represent the trend of crypto assets transforming from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets." These structural opportunities will guide the direction of the next wave of capital tides.

The season of shanzhai has changed. The "comprehensive bull run" of 2021 characterized by meme resonance and chain game interactions will not be repeated. The next market cycle will be more deeply tied to three major anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable funds through ETF channels, and DeFi projects that truly possess RWA mapping capabilities and can connect with real-world volumes will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle.

Ordinary investors face both challenges and opportunities. When the market seems stagnant, it is actually the golden period for large funds to quietly accumulate positions. The key lies in whether one stands on the correct structure; the reconstruction of position structure determines whether one can profit from the main upward trend.

2025th