Crypto Market Trends and Outlook

Market Observation

The tax reduction bill promoted by the U.S. government has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be officially signed soon. Although this move may lead to an increase in national debt and some citizens losing their health insurance, the strong performance of employment data in June provides support for the implementation of the policy. The employment report exceeded expectations, prompting the market to adjust its expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

However, some analysts hold a different view. They have lowered their forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times within the year. At the same time, the government plans to implement new tariff policies on several countries, which may trigger a new round of trade friction.

The compliance process of the encryption industry is accelerating. The application for a bank license by a well-known stablecoin issuer is regarded as a milestone in the industry's development, which is expected to enhance the regulatory standards and market position of stablecoins.

The Bitcoin market is sensitive to macro news. After the employment data was released, Bitcoin briefly approached $110,000 but failed to break through. Several analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's medium to long-term prospects, expecting it to reach between $116,000 and $170,000 by the end of the year. However, in the short term, there is resistance around $112,000, and if it cannot break through, it may retreat to the range of $106,000 to $107,500.

A well-known figure has warned that government policies could lead to a short-term liquidity contraction, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to between $90,000 and $95,000. He expects the market may consolidate or decline slightly before the end of August, with a possible rise in early September.

The performance of the altcoin market varies, with some tokens showing significant gains. It is worth noting that some emerging tokens have experienced remarkable growth in the short term, but with high volatility.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $109,188 (Year-to-Date +16.61%), Daily Trading Volume $28.786 Billion
• Ethereum: $2,579.71 (Year-to-date -22.81%), Daily Trading Volume $18.035 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 73 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%
• Total liquidated amount in 24 hours: $193 million

ETF Capital Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$605 million
• Ethereum ETF: +149 million USD

Today's Outlook

• A certain wallet will exclusively launch a new project.
• A certain DAO governance proposal has been approved and will be implemented today.

Hot News

• Suspected institutional affiliated wallet large withdrawal of ETH
• Multiple institutions increase their holdings in SOL and ETH
• US employment data exceeded expectations
• The core team of a certain trading platform announced its dissolution.
• Swiss banks support new stablecoins
• The activity level of large institutional investors is increasing.