Market Observation Weekly Report [6.16 - 6.20]: Geopolitical impacts intensify, Mainstream Token fluctuates and adjusts, market poised for action at high levels.

Geopolitical turmoil has triggered market fluctuations, mainstream cryptocurrencies are adjusting, small coins are weakening in their upward momentum, and the market is consolidating at high levels.

Macroeconomic situation causes market fluctuations, sentiment tends to be cautious:

The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a brief increase in risk-averse sentiment in the market, with a decrease in volatility. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, but investors' attitudes are becoming more cautious and wait-and-see.

The momentum of capital inflow has warmed up somewhat but is difficult to sustain:

The net inflow of cryptocurrency ETFs reached $1.02 billion, but the growth rate has slowed. The growth rate of stablecoin issuance has decreased, and the premium of US dollar stablecoins has weakened, indicating a cautious attitude towards fund entry.

The trend of mainstream cryptocurrencies is diverging, Bitcoin's strength is weakening, and Ethereum is pulling back after a rebound:

Bitcoin encountered resistance and fell back after a surge, while Ethereum's momentum for a rebound has weakened. Large institutions continue to increase their holdings, and the market structure is leaning towards neutral to strong.

Marginal Improvement in Liquidity for Small Coins but Upside Hindered:

The total market value of non-mainstream tokens rebounded and then retraced, with the proportion stabilizing after a drop. On-chain activity data has not escaped the weak range.

The current market is at the end of consolidation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of funds and patience is needed to observe the strengthening structure of small coins and the signs of fund inflow into mainstream tokens.

1. Macroeconomic and Market Environment

• The Federal Reserve's meeting tone is neutral, maintaining expectations of two rate cuts within the year, but due to tariffs, inflation revisions, and economic downgrades, the rate cut path is becoming more conservative.
• In the third quarter, due to oil prices, tariff implementation, and the low base effect from the same period last year, the Federal Reserve finds it difficult to immediately cut interest rates. It is expected that after the impact of tariffs and the trend of oil prices become clear in mid-August, September may be the first point for an interest rate cut, and core inflation may rise to 3.0% by the end of the year.

2. Fund Flow Analysis & Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Fund Flow

• ETF Funds: This week inflows reached $2.8 billion, significantly increasing.

• Stablecoin: This week, $2.3 billion was issued, with an average daily issuance of $321 million, which is at a relatively high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: The premium of stablecoins continues to rise slightly.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical Analysis: The market is in a fluctuating upward range.

• On-chain chip distribution: Chips above $103,000 are enhanced

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than Bitcoin, ETH/BTC remains in a range, with funds continuously flowing back to Bitcoin dominance.

• On-chain Activity: The increase in active addresses may indicate the completion of a phase of bottoming.