The ancient Whale holding 80,000 BTC awakens. Will the market experience a big dump?

On July 14, BTC broke through 123,000 USD, reaching a new high. Taking advantage of the new high of Bitcoin, an ancient whale who built a position in 2011 and once owned 80,000 BTC (the cost price of this batch of BTC was between 0.78 and 3.37 USD) began to transfer BTC to Galaxy Digital. As of the time of writing, its address still has 40,800 BTC left.

The Whale transferred to the Bitcoin platform Galaxy Digital, which covers multiple areas including asset management, digital infrastructure solutions, and investment banking. In terms of OTC business, it supports large transactions and can provide institutional clients with a significant amount of cryptocurrency trading, reducing the risk of market impact on trades.

On July 15, the market experienced a pullback, with Bitcoin dropping more than 5% from the high point on the 14th. The action of this Whale transferring Bitcoin to Galaxy Digital is interpreted by the market as a high probability of seeking to sell Bitcoin through Galaxy Digital's OTC services.

In the current market, on one hand, there is the awakening of ancient Bitcoin whales, and on the other hand, there is the continuous buying by major institutional listed companies. Another reality is that during this round of BTC's rise, retail investors' emotions have not surged, and most retail investors no longer hold Bitcoin.

What stage is the current market at? Is the current pullback a good opportunity for retail investors to get in?

Is the Whale transferring BTC a selling pressure?

The ancient whale's movements have become the focus of the market's attention. According to on-chain data, this whale, who built a position as early as 2011 and once held 80,000 BTC, began making large transfers in the early hours of July 15, moving some BTC to Galaxy Digital. Although it is not yet possible to confirm whether it has sold directly, such actions are often seen by the market as "potential selling pressure."

Data shows that as of the time of writing, the address has approximately 40,800 BTC remaining, still at a high level. This indicates that while the whale has taken action, it is not a "liquidation" exit, but rather seems to be beginning to seek institutional channels for selling. Moreover, these Bitcoins are more likely to be sold through OTC to entities capable of taking over.

On July 15th, the price of BTC experienced a pullback, falling more than 5% from the high point on the 14th, which had a certain impact on short-term market sentiment. Nevertheless, based on historical experience, whenever the "ancient Whale" awakens, it is often one of the indicators of the mid-phase of a bull market, rather than a top signal.

In the industry, the awakening of the ancient Whale this time is compared with the previous sale by the German government. From June 19 to July 12, 2024, the German government gradually sold 50,000 Bitcoins that had been confiscated. During that time, the price of Bitcoin significantly dropped during the sale period, falling from about $65,000 on the first day of sale on June 19 to a low of $53,717 on July 6, a decline of over 22%. The entire cryptocurrency market was also affected.

At that time, the German government, as a major holder of coins, triggered fear, uncertainty, and doubt among investors with its selling behavior.

At this time, people couldn't help but wonder whether the awakening and selling off by the whales would bring a huge shock to the market, like the last time the German government sold off, especially since the amount of Bitcoin they hold far exceeds that of the German government's holdings.

Institutions continue to buy, can retail investors still enter the market?

However, compared to the time when the German government sold off, the current market environment has undergone significant changes. The biggest change may be the continuous buying by institutional investors.

Some analysts say that if this Whale is selling, it is also through Galaxy Digital's OTC services, matching institutional buyers.

Indeed, institutional investors are continuously buying. According to statistics from multiple data sources such as Bitcoin Treasuries, by mid-July 2025, over 260 well-known companies and institutions globally are publicly holding Bitcoin, with a total holding of nearly 3.5 million coins. Participants include publicly listed companies (over 140), private companies, sovereign nations, as well as ETFs and various funds. In terms of regional distribution, major financial centers such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Hong Kong are leading the way.

MicroStrategy purchased 4,225 Bitcoins from July 7 to July 13, and as of now, it holds a total of 600,000 Bitcoins.

In the past year, the number of wallets holding 100 to 1000 BTC has significantly increased. The total amount of Bitcoin held by these medium-sized addresses has risen from 3.9 million to 4.76 million. This indicates that small institutions, funds, and even wealthy individuals are more actively accumulating Bitcoin.

The continuous buying by institutions and wealthy individuals may explain why the BTC price continues to reach new highs despite multiple "bad news" events. The institutional buying behind it not only has a financial advantage but also has a medium to long-term allocation intention, rather than short-term speculation. Their attitude towards BTC has now shifted from wait-and-see and testing to strategic positioning. On the other hand of the ancient whale transferring out BTC, the entire traditional financial world is quietly taking over.

Unlike previous bull markets, this time the rise of BTC has not been accompanied by a significant explosion of retail sentiment. The discussion activity regarding BTC on social platforms like X is relatively low, and the growth rate of small on-chain addresses is also at a relatively low level. From another perspective, this could be a signal to "build a position."

Entering the market at the end of a bull market characterized by high emotions and overflowing FOMO is often a typical feature of buying at a high position. The current calmness of the market may indicate that a bubble has not yet formed, and the real "retail investor wave" may not have arrived yet.

Of course, this does not mean that you can buy in without thinking. After all, Bitcoin is no longer a game for retail investors. In the market landscape where ancient Whales and institutions are competing, how retail investors control their positions and pay attention to macro changes is the key to surviving long in this market.