AI Agent Track Analysis: Development Potential and Investment Opportunities

Before analyzing the AI Agent track, let's first examine the changes in the cryptocurrency industry during this cycle from a macro perspective:

The Differentiation of Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency Market

Previously, Bitcoin was almost synonymous with the entire cryptocurrency market. However, with the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, recognition of Bitcoin's value has become a mainstream view among politicians and publicly listed companies. But this recognition has not extended to Ethereum and other crypto assets.

The main reason for this differentiation is the difference in asset positioning:

• Bitcoin is regarded as an alternative asset similar to gold, with its anti-inflation and value storage properties widely recognized.
• Cryptocurrencies like Ethereum still lack mature and sustainable business models in the eyes of traditional financial institutions, and are regarded as high-risk, low-return assets.

Data shows that Ethereum's Sharpe ratio is lower than that of tech giants like Meta and Google, while Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio is second only to that of NVIDIA, which has performed outstandingly in this cycle.

In addition, the current level of interest rates and monetary policy is relatively tight under the macroeconomic environment, coupled with the booming development of the AI industry, which has resulted in insufficient attractiveness of cryptocurrencies to off-market funds.

Serious Imbalance in the Internal Ecosystem of Cryptocurrency

Despite the total amount of funds in the market exceeding that of the last bull market, most cryptocurrencies, except for Bitcoin, have failed to reach new highs. This supply-demand imbalance stems from the following factors:

1. Supply Side: Numerous newly financed projects with high valuations lack practical application scenarios and user bases.
2. Demand Side: Centralized exchanges are reducing their operations under regulatory pressure, which has decreased opportunities for user expansion and participation in early projects.

Advantages of AI Agents Compared to Meme Coins

Every bull market requires new asset issuances and trading models to generate a wealth effect. In the current environment of high valuations and supply-demand imbalances, Meme coins are the first to break through the barriers. However, AI Agents have a broader consensus foundation:

• For investment institutions: a story about investing in AI infrastructure.
• For extreme speculators: Explaining the on-chain meme logic
• For ordinary practitioners and VCs: can explain the investment logic of AI Agent projects

This makes the AI Agent the greatest common divisor of the current cycle in the web3 industry.

Investment Framework for AI Agent Projects

AI Agent has reshaped the industrial chain and valuation logic of cryptocurrency. After integrating AI into the underlying technology stack of blockchain, the AI layer runs in parallel with smart contracts as the technical foundation.

Based on this logic, we can draw an analogy to the valuation of leading DeFi projects:

• The AI Agent framework may reach 5% of Ethereum's market value.
• The launch platform may align with the valuation of Chainlink + Uniswap
• High-quality AI applications may reach 1.25%-3% of Ethereum's market value.

How AI Agents are Changing the Cryptocurrency Ecosystem

AI Agent brings innovation in asset acquisition, project financing, and token issuance.

• Simplify user interactions and lower the operational threshold
• Improve the transparency of the financing and token issuance process.
• Enhance fund security

AI Agent applications that can win users' trading entry have the potential to benchmark the valuation of exchange platform tokens.

Long-term Vision of AI Agent

The future AI Agent may form a new AI society, creating a trillion-dollar level economic scale. In this AI economy, cryptocurrency will become an important currency and economic circulation asset.

Development Stages of AI Agent Project

According to market capitalization data, the total market value of AI Agents is approximately $18.6 billion, which accounts for 64% of the total market value of DeFi, 75% of GameFi, and 62% of the total market value of Layer 2. Market sentiment indicates that the AI Agent sector has just passed the halfway mark and still has considerable room for growth.

Potential Future Hotspots

In addition to the currently popular Launchpad and Framework models, the following directions are worth paying attention to:

1. Agent-driven cryptocurrency exchange
2. Agent-driven stablecoin
3. Agentification of various applications

Overall, the era of AI Agents has just begun, and there is immense potential for future development.