Gold Investment Outlook: May Reach $8900 by 2030

The global financial and monetary system is undergoing significant changes, and the value of gold as a no-counterparty-risk asset is increasingly highlighted. This article analyzes the current situation of the gold market and its future trends.

Current Status of the Gold Market

Currently, gold is in the second phase of a bull market, the "public participation period," characterized by:

• Media reports are optimistic
• Speculative interest increases
• New financial products launched
• Analyst raises target price

Over the past 5 years, global gold prices have risen by 92%. As of the end of April this year, it has reached a historical high of 22 times. Compared to traditional assets such as stocks, gold is forming a technical breakthrough.

Key Factors Affecting Gold

geopolitical restructuring

The global landscape is rapidly restructuring, which is beneficial for gold. Gold has three major advantages as an anchor of the new monetary order:

• Neutrality
• No counterparty risk
• High liquidity

Trump's policy impact

After Trump returns to the White House, he will initiate an economic restructuring, with the main policy direction:

• Solve government debt
• Trade policy reform
• Dollar depreciation

central bank demand

The central bank has increased its gold holdings by over 1,000 tons for three consecutive years. In 2024, gold will account for 22% of foreign exchange reserves, the highest since 1997. Central banks in Asia, including China, are the main buyers.

devaluation of fiat currency

Since 1900, the M2 money supply in the United States has increased by 2,333 times, far exceeding population growth. The growth of the money supply is a long-term driver of gold prices.

Gold Price Prediction

Incrementum model prediction:

• Basic scenario: $4800 by the end of 2030, $2942 by the end of 2025
• Inflation scenario: $8,900 by the end of 2030, $4,080 by the end of 2025

The current gold price has exceeded the 2025 baseline scenario target.

Investment Opportunities

Apart from gold, assets such as silver and mining stocks, which are considered "performance gold," may have significant potential in this upcycle.

Bitcoin may also benefit from the current shift in the landscape. The report expects Bitcoin's market value to reach 50% of gold by the end of 2030, approximately $900,000.

Risk Factors

Potential short-term risks include:

• Decrease in central bank demand
• Investors reduce positions
• Geopolitical premium decreases
• The US economy is stronger than expected
• Dollar rebound

Conclusion

The golden bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-term phase. The long-term rise is based on the following pillars:

• Global financial currency system restructuring
• Government and central bank inflation tendency
• The rise of emerging markets such as Asia
• Funds transferred from US assets
• "Performance Gold" expected excess returns

Gold is becoming a core asset in investment portfolios again, demonstrating its safe-haven value during turbulent times.