Is the Bitcoin bull run entering its final sprint? On-chain data suggests that the cycle peak may only be a few months away.

On August 22, the trading price of Bitcoin (BTC) was about $112,450, struggling to break through the $114,000 resistance level for several consecutive days. On-chain data shows that bullish momentum is slowing down, and signs similar to the end of historical bull runs are emerging. Market analysts warn that this bull run cycle may have only 1-2 months left.

Price is stuck at the 114,000 USD resistance area

This week, Bitcoin rebounded after hitting the support zone at $112,000, coming close to $114,000, but then faced resistance and fell back.

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that if the weekly closing fails to stay above $114,000, it will be difficult to reverse the short-term downward pressure; conversely, if it falls below $112,000, it may test $110,000, and even reach the support zone where the 100-day SMA is located.

Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Capital, believes that the $110,000-$112,000 range will be the "golden buying zone" for long-term investors.

on-chain signal: highly similar to the end of historical cycles

(Source: Glassnode)

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin has surged over 700% from its low of $15,500 in November 2022, reaching an all-time high of $124,500 last week.

Currently, about 91% of BTC supply is in profit, and this ratio has been above +1 standard deviation for 273 consecutive days, marking the second longest record in history, only behind the 335 days during the 2015-2018 cycle.

Moreover, the scale of profit-taking by long-term holders (LTH) recently exceeded that of previous cycles, indicating that the market has entered a "extreme excitement" stage, which typically occurs at the end of a bull run.

Analyst Prediction: The Top May Be in September-October 2025

Rekt Capital predicts that if Bitcoin continues the trend of historical halving cycles, the cycle top may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025, meaning there are only 1-2 months left until the peak.

This is consistent with Glassnode's statistics – historically, bull run peaks typically occur within 2-3 months after the later stages of the cycle.

Key Support and Risk Zone

(Source: Trading View)

Resistance level: $114,000 (breakthrough or test above $120,000)

Main support: $112,000 → $110,000 (100-day SMA)

Risk range: If it falls below 110,000 USD, it may drop to the range of 100,000-90,000 USD.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades warns that if it falls below $110,000, the market structure will weaken, and the pullback may widen.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical moment in the bull run cycle: on-chain data shows that the market has entered a late-stage feature, with long-term holders accelerating profit-taking, and the price is facing resistance at $114,000. If the bulls hold the $110,000-$112,000 range, there is still hope to hit new highs; conversely, breaking the support may indicate that the bull run is entering a cooling phase. For more real-time market trends and cycle analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.