Analysis: Macroeconomic data makes a U.S. recession this year a "baseline prediction", Bitcoin is expected to rise.

PANews reported on May 1 that, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from a U.S. recession as a "baseline scenario expectation". A number of sources are pessimistic about the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve, and the trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the U.S. GDP growth rate unexpectedly turned negative in the first quarter, and the combined trade tariff policy may exacerbate inflation, and the Fed is in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and unemployment, and the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts will be crucial. No interest rate cut will weaken GDP and increase unemployment, and an immediate rate cut will fear a rebound in inflation, and the Fed faces the dual threat of stagflation and full-blown recession. Kobeissi called a U.S. recession a baseline expectation. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has conservative expectations for Fed policy, and it is unlikely that there will be major changes before 2025. The market believes that the FOMC may cut interest rates by 0.25% at its June meeting, with only a 3% chance in May. Crypto market participants are weighing the direction of the Fed's policy, with well-known trader Skew saying that the probability of interest rate cuts is rising, the situation is urgent, and the Fed is more concerned about economic weakness. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that the increase in recession rumors will strengthen the argument for the Fed to ease policy, when market liquidity increases and risk appetite may increase.