Today the market fell a bit due to the uncertainty and the meeting with Old Powell, continuing the tradition of falling whenever there is a meeting. But it feels like the market is very calm now, and instead, many people are getting excited because the bearish traders can finally breathe a sigh of relief. To be honest, this round of bull run feels quite strange to me; ever since BTC returned to above 100,000, many people around me are not really hoping for it to continue to rise, but rather hope it falls, preferably to experience another major retracement like in April.
Perhaps in the past two years, the retail investors have been tormented by the market makers and are now afraid. The explosive rise from March to May last year, the torture from June to October, the excitement from November to December, and the disappointment from January to April have made many people increasingly cautious. They dare not take positions for the medium to long term and are unwilling to chase hot topics. The market seems to slowly form a consensus, expecting BTC to consolidate and hoping for the arrival of altcoin season, but many believe it won't rise further. Therefore, during this round of BTC's rise, many friends around me have reduced their positions. Among those who bought at the bottom in late April, 70% chose to sell directly, while some chose to cut losses during the rebound at the bottom.
If there are really only two rate cuts this year, the bull run cycle may really be extended, making the arrival of the altcoin season even harder to predict. However, this does not hinder the manipulators from designing scripts. Compared to the U.S. stock market and index funds, the candlestick charts in the crypto market are relatively easier to manipulate. As long as there is enough capital and chips, it is easy to grasp the sentiment of retail investors in the market, because this market is indeed in a gray area, drifting outside traditional financial regulatory rules. The bull run of 2021 was still a game among institutions, but now it has turned into a battle between Wall Street and the Trump consortium.
This round of altcoin market is destined to be very difficult, bookmakers like to cultivate retail investors to carve the boat for the sword thinking, they successfully predicted the prediction of most retail investors, it is undeniable that the retail investors in the market are very accustomed to finding rules, we are used to using last year's market cycle to infer this year's trend, we are used to using the experience of the last round of bull market to judge the rise and fall of this round. But after entering the 25-year bull market range, Lao Leek found that these patterns became more and more elusive. In addition to Trump's special ability to make trouble, the market of altcoins this year is indeed simple and ambiguous. From the sharp drop of altcoins without warning on February 3 to the two-month decline of ETH, with a bull market decline of up to 66%, and the price of 90% of altcoins falling back into the 22-year bear market range, I believe that 90% of old leeks could not predict this situation.
At the end of last year, my trading plan mentioned considering exiting some positions around April to May, but by the end of May, aside from BTC reaching the expected price level, none of the other coins met my expectations. We cannot change the market, but for most people, this is a signal that needs to be heeded.
Looking back at this year's market, in the 1-hour and 4-hour K-lines, false breakout and false breakdown patterns are very common. On the daily and weekly lines, the distortion rate of many frequently used indicators is on the high side, and the main trader can be described in four words: unexpected
As May comes to an end, if you have time, let's chat in the comments about how the market will trend next. If BTC experiences a sharp fall, what will happen to the altcoins in our hands?
Besides the secondary market, what other high certainty earning tracks or coins are there? Feel free to share your thoughts, let's discuss, I would love to hear more ☕#特朗普关税进展##稳定币支付量达942亿美元##成长值抽奖，赢 iPhone 16 和精美周边#
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