Focus on important bills before the US stock market closes. Can Bitcoin achieve great results again in July?

1. Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a critical juncture. Chairman Powell stated that if it weren't for the tariff plans potentially undermining inflation control efforts, the Fed might have already cut interest rates. While he has retained flexibility for the July rate decision, his comments suggest that future policies could be more accommodative; if employment data weakens, the threshold for rate cuts may be lowered. Meanwhile, an important tax and spending bill has passed the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill covers a wide range of issues, including tax cuts, reductions in social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to significantly increase U.S. national debt over the next decade. On trade, the president's stance is firm, clearly stating that he will not postpone the tariff deadline of July 9, particularly targeting Japan, which has heightened market tensions. Notably, due to the holiday, U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 a.m. Beijing time on July 4 and remain closed all day on July 4.

On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, a licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an offline experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station to provide convenient services to the public. The chief analyst of the exchange stated that Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of the paradigms of efficiency and trust. The year 2025 is seen as a critical juncture for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of enhanced on-chain efficiency and the accelerated trend of digital asset institutionalization, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning. An analyst from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has weakened for the first time, possibly entering a consolidation or local top. At the same time, the decline in spot trading volume and the increase in profit-taking have made the short-term holder's cost price of $98,700 a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. It is expected that future volatility will further decrease, or continue to oscillate within a range. Data shows that over the past decade, Bitcoin recorded increases in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%, supporting the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 mark. More pessimistic analysts warn that the real sell-off has not yet begun, predicting that Bitcoin could fall below $100,000 to the $92,000-$93,000 range. If it continues to decline, it may reach a potential bottom of $60,000-$70,000. He also pointed out that if this trend materializes, small coins could face a further decline risk of 50%-80%.

The on-chain market has been relatively quiet recently, with no popular fast-track trading occurring. The prices of $USELESS on a certain platform and $STARTUP on another platform have both reached historical highs. However, the recent surge in blockchain stocks, led by a certain trading platform and xStocks, has brought some highlights. The stock price of a certain trading platform reached a historical high of $99.18 yesterday, which also revived the Meme coin stockcoin on a certain chain, increasing its market capitalization from $14,000 to $4.4 million in nearly 3 days, a rise of 1400% within 24 hours.

2. Key Data ( as of July 2, 12:00 HKT )

• Bitcoin: $106,465 ( Year-to-date +13.8% ), Daily spot trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 ( Year-to-date -26.88% ), daily spot trading volume is $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63( Greed )
• Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB ETH: 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• Trading volume ranking on a certain platform in 24 hours: STMX, XRP, CBK, Bitcoin, PENGU
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 1.1186
• Sector performance: AI sector decreased by 4.48%; RWA sector decreased by 4.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 256 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 77.6394 million USD, ETH liquidations of 56.1918 million USD, and SOL liquidations of 13.8666 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper channel line (107151.13 USD ), Lower channel line (105029.32 USD )
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (2467.39 USD ), Lower Channel Line (2418.53 USD )

3. ETF Flow ( as of July 1 )

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million ( consecutive 15-day net inflow was terminated )
• Ethereum ETF: +$40,679,800 ( Continuous net inflow for 3 days )

4. Today's Outlook

Due to the Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3, (, which is at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4, ); the market will be closed all day on July 4.

• A certain trading platform will launch Echo Protocol on July 2 ( ECHO )
• A trading platform has launched Wormhole (W)
• Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• A trading platform will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd on July 4th at 16:00.
• US June ADP employment figures ( million ): previous value 3.7, expected 9.5( July 2 20:15 )
• US June unemployment rate: Previous value 4.2%, expected 4.3% ( July 3 20:30 )
• US June seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population ( million ): Previous value 13.9, expected 11(7, March 3 at 20:30 )
• Ethena(ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2nd, which is 0.67% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 10.7 million USD.

Top 500 market cap biggest gains today: Humanity Protocol (H) up 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) up 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) up 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) up 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) up 16.68%.

5. Hot News

• The publicly listed cannabis company Dogecoin Cash Inc. has established a subsidiary to create a DOGE treasury and related business.
• A trading platform will launch CROSS(CROSS)
• London-listed company Anemoi has increased its Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to approximately 40%.
• Analysis: Bitcoin's average increase in July was 9.1%, and it may challenge the $116,000 mark in the coming weeks.
• Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Bought another BTC, believing that Bitcoin will one day reach 1 million dollars.
• Linghang Pharmaceutical Biotechnology plans to acquire all equity of Conflux to expand in the blockchain field, with two founding members of Conflux serving as its executive directors.
• Japanese game company CyberStep plans to invest 1 billion yen in cryptocurrency investment, using BTC and ETH for corporate asset reserves.
• Analysis from a trading platform: BTC typically performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%.
• The Nasdaq-listed company LGHL has accumulated purchases worth 5 million USD of HYPE, SOL, and SUI.
• The MOVE Foundation's reserve wallet received 45 million $MOVE from a certain exchange platform, currently holding 168 million coins.
• Trusta.AI announces the $TA token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
• A political family-related cryptocurrency project American Bitcoin raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September and to cut three times in total.
• The Katana mainnet is officially launched, and a 1 billion KAT token incentive program has been initiated.
• A payment company applies for a U.S. banking license to custody USDC reserves.
• A trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the EU.
• US Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July
• BitMine announces a private placement of $250 million and launches an Ethereum financial strategy.
• A large bank has given a certain payment company a "hold" rating, setting a target price of $80 by the end of 2026.