Future Outlook of the Crypto Market: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

In the coming weeks, the crypto market may experience a period of volatility. Spot positions may face significant retracement, and investors need to respond cautiously. However, for those who can hold long-term, this may be an opportunity. It is expected that in the next 4 to 8 weeks, the market may welcome a new rising phase.

Multiple factors support this view, including Bitcoin's dominant position being high, seasonal factors, the possibility of the Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio rising, and market capital rotation. Additionally, the overall policy environment and macroeconomic situation are relatively favorable, creating good conditions for the market.

In the upcoming rise, investors should consider gradually shifting to a selling position. If they choose to continue holding during the trough, a gradual exit strategy towards safer assets should be formulated. Bitcoin and stablecoins are often seen as relatively safe options.

As the market cycle progresses, it becomes increasingly important to reduce risk and scale down positions. It is recommended to gradually exit through regular investment rather than liquidating all at once.

It is currently difficult to make accurate predictions about future market rotations. The market may be more favorable for traders rather than long-term holders. Certain cryptocurrencies may attract a large amount of buying interest, while others may experience slow increases. It is challenging to determine in advance which cryptocurrencies or sectors will become market leaders.

Do not cling to certain cryptocurrencies in order to reach unrealistic target prices. Many cryptocurrencies may never touch their historical highs again. While some mainstream cryptocurrencies might reach them, it does not mean that all cryptocurrencies will return to their peaks. Following market trends and taking profits at the right time is the wise move.

For a diversified investment portfolio, it is recommended to consider selling 50-75% or more of your holdings during the next wave of upward movement, when the rotation ends. For example, take profits in a timely manner when a specific sector rises.

In the upcoming period, investors should consider consolidating their investments, reducing the number of new positions, and lowering the overall variety of holdings. As for when the next significant correction will occur, it is currently difficult to predict accurately. There may still be a timeframe of 3-6 months, during which the market may experience another significant adjustment.

Although some have proposed the concept of a "super cycle," investors should still maintain a cautious attitude. Setting reasonable drawdown targets, such as controlling the portfolio's maximum drawdown from historical highs to around 30-40%, may be a more ideal range.

Continuously analyzing market data and constantly reassessing the peaks and endpoints of market cycles is crucial. When the market begins to turn, the situation can become complicated. Stay alert, accept market information, and adjust strategies based on actual conditions.

Finally, the importance of independent thinking and research cannot be overstated. Everyone's trading strategy is different, and one should not rely entirely on the opinions of others. If you can exit the market with a substantial profit, that is already a good outcome.