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Favourable Information in the macro environment drives Bitcoin to break through $106,000, while ETH capital outflow may suggest that investors are turning to long-term holding.
Crypto Assets Market Trends: Macroeconomic Favourable Information Drives Bitcoin to Break $106,000
Market Observation
The macro environment shows a positive shift. News of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East has eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, with crude oil prices falling back to pre-conflict levels and gold briefly dropping below the $3,300 mark. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve released key signals during a congressional hearing: while he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, implying that it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. He stated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, the Fed would "cut rates sooner rather than later," but that the current strong economy does not necessitate hasty action, also noting that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is the main reason for delaying rate cuts. This statement was interpreted by the market as dovish, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, leading to a broad surge in U.S. stocks—Nasdaq 100 hitting a record high, the Dow Jones surging 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields falling in sync with the dollar.
In terms of regulation, a certain trading platform is seeking approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks can achieve T+0 settlement, low thresholds, lower costs, and 24/7 trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms. Additionally, after the new management team of the SEC took office, there has been a shift in regulatory attitudes towards the crypto industry. Not only have lawsuits against multiple crypto companies been withdrawn, but a crypto task force has also been established to formulate regulations for digital assets. Industry insiders believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading while providing investors with more diversified and flexible trading options.
Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under favourable macro conditions, but its performance has been relatively restrained. The founder of a research institution stated that the 13% increase in Bitcoin from the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's caution regarding structural changes. According to analysts, the concentration of holdings within a 5% range of the current spot price has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that if the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience significant volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, several technical analysts have provided similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trends, suggesting that the price may consolidate at current levels. If it breaks through $107,000, it is likely to test $110,000; otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000.
Regarding Ethereum, an analyst from a data platform stated that a certain trading platform experienced massive fund withdrawals on June 23, with over 4000 BTC and 61000 ETH flowing out from the platform. This indicates that trader sentiment may have shifted from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Another analytical institution further pointed out that as the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant increase, with its profit supply ratio being far lower than that of Bitcoin, showing potential for a price correction. However, some analysts hold a different view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through the $3000 level for over 20 weeks, which has damaged market confidence, and it faces intense competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to the level above $3000 in the short term.
In the market, several emerging tokens have attracted attention. $solami quickly gained market attention due to its interaction with a certain public chain official, with a market value reaching $12 million at one point. $ACID claims to be developed by a team under a certain AI foundation, attracting investors with the concept of "cross Web2 and Web3 intelligent agents," reaching a market value of $18 million. Meanwhile, $TECH gained attention due to a video meme, with a market value peaking at $3.4 million.
Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layout in the encryption field. A US stock company announced the acquisition of a certain platform's coin through a $500 million convertible bond as a strategic reserve, driving its stock price to soar by 150% in a single day. The Hong Kong market has also seen breakthrough progress, as a certain Chinese-funded brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese-funded brokerage to provide trading services for mainstream coins. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price with an intraday increase of over 100%, also boosting the share prices of related companies.
Key Data
( As of June 25, 12:00 HKT )
ETF Flows
( as of June 24 )
Today's Outlook
Market Performance
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