Bitcoin may reach a million dollars, but you must first endure a severe Bear Market.

From the start of World War II until 2024, we have experienced an unprecedented super bull market. This prolonged rise has shaped generations of passive investors who habitually believe that "the market will never have problems." However, this feast has come to an end, and many are about to face liquidation.

How did we get here?

The super bull market from 1939 to 2024 is fueled by a series of structural changes that have completely reshaped the global economy, with the United States always at its core.

became a global superpower after World War II

World War II pushed the United States to become the undisputed leader of the "free world." By 1945, the U.S. produced over half of the world's industrial output, controlled a third of global exports, and held about two-thirds of the world's gold reserves. This economic hegemony laid the foundation for growth in the decades that followed.

After World War II, the United States actively embraced the role of a global leader, promoting the establishment of the United Nations and implementing the "Marshall Plan," injecting over $13 billion into Western Europe. This was not merely assistance; by investing in the reconstruction of post-war nations, the U.S. created new markets for its products while establishing its cultural and economic dominance.

Labor Force Expansion: Women and Minorities

During World War II, approximately 6.7 million women entered the workforce, causing the female labor participation rate to increase by nearly 50% in a short period of time. Although many women left their jobs after the war, this large-scale mobilization permanently changed society's views on women's employment.

By 1950, the trend of married women entering the workforce had become increasingly evident, with labor participation rates for women across most age groups rising by an unprecedented 10 percentage points. This was not just a wartime exception, but the starting point for a fundamental shift in the American economic model. The "marriage ban" (the policy prohibiting married women from working) was abolished, part-time work increased, innovations in household labor, and higher education levels all contributed to women transitioning from temporary workers to long-term participants in the economic system.

A similar trend has occurred among minority groups, who are gradually gaining more economic opportunities. This expansion of the workforce has effectively increased the productive capacity of the United States, supporting decades of economic growth.

The victory of the Cold War and the wave of globalization

The Cold War shaped America's political and economic role after World War II. By 1989, the United States had formed military alliances with 50 countries and stationed 1.5 million troops in 117 countries around the world. This was not only for military security but also to establish America's economic influence globally.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States became the world's only superpower, entering an era that many view as a unipolar world. This was not only a victory of ideology but also an opening of global markets, allowing the United States to dominate the global trade landscape.

From the 1990s to the early 21st century, American companies significantly expanded into emerging markets. This was not a natural evolution, but rather the result of long-term policy choices. For instance, in countries where the CIA intervened during the Cold War, the volume of imports from the U.S. increased significantly, especially in industries where the U.S. had no clear competitive advantage.

The victory of Western capitalism over Eastern communism was not solely due to military or ideological advantages. The Western liberal democratic system is more adaptable and was able to effectively adjust its economic structure even after the 1973 oil crisis. The "Volcker Shock" of 1979 reshaped America's global financial hegemony, making global capital markets a new engine of growth for the United States in the post-industrial era.

These structural changes have collectively driven this unprecedented super bull market in financial assets. However, the core issue is: these changes are one-time events that cannot be repeated. You cannot get women back into the labor market again, and you cannot defeat the Soviet Union again. And now, both parties are pushing for de-globalization, and we are witnessing the last support of this ultra-long cycle of growth being pulled away.

What will happen next?

However, unfortunately, everyone is praying for the market to return to historical norms. The market consensus is: things will get worse, then the central banks will ease again, and we can continue to make money... But the reality is: this group of people is walking towards the slaughterhouse.

The bull market of nearly a century has been built on a series of non-reproducible events (the bull market cannot continue), and some of these factors are even reversing.

• Women will not re-enter the labor market on a large scale: In fact, as pro-natalist elites push for higher birth rates, female labor participation rates may decline.
• Minorities will not be heavily absorbed into the labor market again: In fact, a tough stance on immigration policy has become a bipartisan consensus.
• Interest rates will not fall again: In fact, every elected leader is well aware that inflation is the greatest threat to their re-election. Therefore, governments around the world will strive to avoid lowering interest rates and reigniting inflation.
• We will not further globalize: in fact, we are moving in the completely opposite direction.
• We will not win another world war: in fact, it looks like we might even lose the next war. In any case, I do not want to verify this conjecture.

My view is simple: all the global macro trends that have driven the stock market up over the past century are now reversing. What do you think the market will do?

Goblin Town

When an empire enters decline, life becomes really difficult. If you had bought at the historical high of the Nikkei 225 index in 1989 and held on until now, after 36 years, your return would be about -5%. This is the typical "buy and hold, suffering endlessly". I believe we are on the same path.

Worse still, you should be prepared for capital controls and fiscal suppression policies. The fact that the market is not rising does not mean that the government will accept reality. When traditional monetary policy fails, the government will turn to more direct financial control measures.

upcoming capital controls

Financial repression refers to allowing savers to receive returns that are below the inflation rate so that banks can provide cheap loans to businesses and governments, reducing the pressure of debt repayment. This strategy is particularly effective in government efforts to clear domestic currency debt. In 1973, economists at Stanford University were the first to use this term to criticize the policies of emerging market countries that suppress economic growth, but today, these strategies are increasingly appearing in developed economies such as the United States.

As the U.S. debt burden surpasses 120% of GDP, the possibility of repaying the debt through traditional means is increasingly diminishing. The "playbook" for financial repression has already begun to be implemented or tested, including:

• Directly or indirectly restrict government debt and deposit interest rates
• The government controls financial institutions and establishes competition barriers.
• High Reserve Requirements
• Create a closed domestic debt market, forcing institutions to purchase government bonds.
• Capital controls, restricting cross-border flow of assets

This is not a theoretical assumption, but a real case. Since 2010, the U.S. federal funds rate has been below the inflation rate for more than 80% of the time, which effectively forces the transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers (including the government).

Your retirement account: The government's next target

If the government cannot rely on printing money to buy bonds and lower interest rates to avoid a debt crisis, they will target your retirement accounts. I can completely imagine a future where tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k) will be required to allocate more and more "safe and reliable" government bonds. The government no longer needs to print money; it just needs to directly divert existing funds in the system.

This is exactly the script we have seen in the past few years:

• Frozen Assets: In April 2024, the government signed a law authorizing the government to confiscate certain countries' reserve assets in the United States, setting a precedent for the government to freeze foreign exchange reserves at any time. In the future, this practice may not be limited to geopolitical adversaries.
• Protest incident of the free ride team in a certain country: The government froze about 280 bank accounts without court approval. Financial officials admitted that this was not only to cut off the flow of funds but also aimed to "deter" protesters and ensure they "make the decision to leave." When asked how the freezing of accounts affects innocent families, the government's response was: "They just need to leave."

Gold Strong Enforcement and Monitoring

This is not surprising; American history is filled with similar actions:

In 1933, the government issued Executive Order 6102, which required citizens to surrender gold or face imprisonment. Although enforcement was limited, the Supreme Court upheld the government's right to confiscate gold. This was not a "voluntary purchase plan," but rather a "forced wealth expropriation," merely packaged as a transaction at "fair market prices."

The government's surveillance capabilities expanded rapidly after the 911 events. Relevant legislation grants government agencies almost unrestricted power to monitor citizens' international communications. One bill allows the government to collect the phone records of all citizens on a daily basis. A certain provision even allows the government to collect your reading records, study materials, purchase history, medical records, and personal financial information without any reasonable suspicion.

The question is not "Will financial repression come?" but rather "How severe will it be?" As the economic pressure of de-globalization intensifies, government control over capital will only become more direct and stringent.

Gold and Bitcoin

The gold monthly chart since 1970 is currently the strongest candlestick chart in the world.

Based on the process of elimination, the most suitable financial asset to purchase has become obvious - you need an asset that has no historical correlation with the market, is difficult for governments to confiscate, and is not controlled by Western governments. I can think of two, one of which has increased its market value by $60 billion over the past 12 months. This is the most evident Bull Market signal.

Global Gold Reserve Competition

Countries like China, Russia, and India are rapidly increasing their gold reserves to cope with changes in the global economic landscape:

• China: In January 2025, increased gold holdings by 5 tons in a single month, net buying for three consecutive months, with a total holding of 2,285 tons.
• Russia: Controls 2,335.85 tons of gold, becoming the fifth largest gold reserve country in the world.
• India: Ranked eighth in the world, holding 853.63 tons, and continues to increase its holdings.

This is not a random act, but a strategic layout. After a certain country's organization froze Russia's foreign exchange reserves, central banks around the world took note of this. A survey of 57 central banks showed that 96% of respondents view the credibility of gold as a safe-haven asset as a motivation to continue investing. When dollar-denominated assets can be frozen with a single stroke, physical gold stored within the country becomes extremely attractive.

In 2024 alone, Turkey increased its gold reserves by 74.79 tons, a rise of 13.85%. Poland's gold reserves increased by 89.54 tons, nearly a 25% increase. Even a small country like Uzbekistan added 8 tons of gold in January 2025, bringing its gold holdings to 391 tons, which accounts for 82% of its foreign exchange reserves. This is no coincidence, but a coordinated effort aimed at escaping a financial system that could be weaponized.

Governments around the world are most at ease with gold because they have established systems for using gold in reserves and trade settlements. The combined gold holdings of certain countries' central banks account for more than 20% of the global central bank gold holdings. As the president of a certain country's central bank stated in January 2025, they are transitioning towards "monetary neutrality of gold reserves," with the goal of increasing