Global financial fluctuations ignite the crypto market Bitcoin rebounds from being oversold BERA breaks support

Market Review and Outlook

Macroeconomic Environment Analysis

Recently, global financial markets have experienced increased volatility, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies. This factor has not only weakened market confidence in the U.S. economy but may also continue to disrupt the markets in the coming months. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are showing a downward trend, while U.S. stocks are experiencing severe fluctuations. The cryptocurrency market, following the U.S. stock market, has also undergone significant turbulence.

Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

This week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp rebound after a significant drop, but the overall market lacks a clear hot direction. Some small cryptocurrencies have encountered substantial declines due to delisting from trading platforms. Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, those with significant price fluctuations include:

Top five increases: XCN (110%), FARTCOIN (100%), GAS (60%), LAYER (40%), UXLINK (30%) Top five declines: BERA (40%), EOS (20%), MEW (20%), W (20%), NEAR (20%)

It is worth noting that BERA, as a representative of Defi public chains, has broken below its long-term support level, with its on-chain stablecoin decreasing by about $300 million in a week. Meanwhile, FARTCOIN, as a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has performed brilliantly against the trend, becoming the leader in this round of rebound.

On-chain Data Interpretation

The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market is approaching stagnation, and liquidity is rapidly contracting. The total market capitalization of altcoins has fallen from 1 trillion dollars at the beginning of the year to about 600 billion dollars, with almost all sectors experiencing significant depreciation. Institutional funds have seen a slight net outflow, and global market sentiment is trending towards panic. The market capitalization of stablecoins has slightly declined, reflecting an increase in investors' demand for safe-haven assets.

From the long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score, the current value is 1.6, which is close to the bottom range. This indicates that the overall market is in a loss state, but it also means that there may be a rebound opportunity.

Futures Market Dynamics

The funding rate for futures has remained at a low level of around 0.00% this week, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable. The open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to decline, showing signs of capital withdrawal by major players. The long-short ratio for futures is at 1.9, slightly leaning towards greed, but the reference value of this indicator has weakened recently.

Spot Market Performance

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility this week, while the altcoin market lacks new investment narratives. The pressure on global financial markets continues to increase, affecting almost all asset classes, and the cryptocurrency market has naturally not been spared.

Outlook

The current market is in a phase of high uncertainty, and investors need to maintain a cautious attitude. Although some indicators suggest that the market may be approaching the bottom, the unstable factors in the external environment may still bring further volatility. In this situation, capital management and risk control become particularly important. At the same time, the market's downturn may also provide long-term investors with opportunities to accumulate quality assets.