Whale Strategy Diversification: Bullish on Mainstream Assets, Cautious on Alts

In the rapidly changing cryptocurrency market, the movements of large funds are often seen as important trend indicators. By analyzing the latest leaderboard data from a certain decentralized derivatives exchange, we discovered some interesting trends. As of July 30, the whales on the platform's leaderboard have opened positions worth $4.6 billion, with long positions dominating at $3 billion. However, beneath this seemingly optimistic overall data lies a clear strategic divergence: traders are generally bullish on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, while simultaneously shorting numerous alts and MEME coins. What does this significant differentiation indicate for the market direction?

Overall Trend: Bulls Dominate, but Enthusiasm is Cooling Down

From a macro perspective, the bullish strength currently holds the upper hand. As of July 30, the total position of top traders on the platform is approximately $4.6 billion, with long positions around $3 billion and short positions around $1.57 billion, resulting in an overall long-short ratio of about 66%.

However, there are also some cautious signals behind the optimistic data. First, the bullish trend has shown a downward trend, with the long-short ratio retreating from the peak of 76% on July 27. Secondly, in terms of profit efficiency, the performance of the bears is more outstanding: among the tokens that the Whale is bearish on, as much as 79% of positions are in profit; while for the tokens they are bullish on, this proportion is only 53.5%. This indicates that although the Whales tend to be bullish overall, their short-term bearish decisions are more likely to be profitable.

Additionally, a certain data platform shows that among the top 125 wallet addresses of this exchange, the short positions have also turned into the main force, which is in contrast to the smaller wallet addresses. The positions of smaller amount addresses generally still indicate a bullish sentiment.

Whale Big Data: Mainstream Assets Bullish, Alts Bearish

The core strategic differences among Whales are reflected in their choice of tokens, presenting a clear picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting alts."

In terms of mainstream assets, Whales are showing a firm bullish stance. Taking the highest positions in BTC and ETH as examples, their long-short ratios far exceed 66%. Specifically for BTC, the total long position amounts to $1.2 billion, while the short position is only $479 million. Interestingly, the average liquidation distance for short positions is as long as 48.3%, far exceeding the 14% for longs, which suggests that many short positions may not be purely bearish but are used as hedging orders for risk management. Additionally, tokens like TON ($19.83 million position) and AAVE ($25.18 million position) also have high long-short ratios, making them some of the few alts favored by Whales.

However, the attitude of Whales towards alts and MEME coins is completely opposite. A series of tokens, including FARTCOIN, PUMP, DOGE, SUI, BONK, PEPE, and even BNB, have a long-short ratio of less than 50%, indicating that shorts dominate. For tokens like MOODENG, SYRUP, S, and JUP, the long-short ratio is even below 10%, showing extreme bearish sentiment. These short positions are generally in profit, further confirming the effectiveness of the Whales' short decision.

Top Traders: Bullish in the Long Term, Watching or Shorting in the Short Term

In addition to the overall data, the attitudes of top traders can also reflect their views on the market.

The trader with the highest profit currently has a total profit of approximately $54.86 million. This trader's profit curve has been generally upward since December 2024 and is a relatively stable and persistent trader. His positions are currently relatively balanced in total amount, with both long and short positions around $63 million. In terms of specific token choices, he mostly holds short positions and a few long positions. Among them, the position with the highest unrealized profit is FARTCOIN, shorted at $1.44, with current unrealized profit reaching $1.12 million. Out of his 16 profitable orders, only 2 are long positions with unrealized profit. AAVE has an unrealized profit of $976,000. From his positions, it is basically consistent with big data, maintaining long positions on BTC and ETH, but looking bearish on alts in the short term.

The second-ranked trader currently has a profit of about $35 million. This trader clearly maintains a long-term bullish outlook on the market, with all positions being long and an overall leverage of only 3.6 times. In terms of duration, this trader is evidently a long-term trader, with the opening price for ETH long positions at only $2,812, BTC long position opening price at $110,000, and SOL at $142, almost entirely held for the long term. However, his long-term long positions have not all realized profits, with a floating loss of $235,000 for FARTCOIN, a floating loss of $45,000 for BIGTIME, and a floating loss of $18,000 for STRK. The remaining orders are all in profit, with the ETH long position alone bringing him a floating profit of $7.21 million.

The third largest trader has reached a floating profit of 40 million USD. 78% of this trader's positions are short. This trader seems to be a short-term trader, with an average holding time of less than 2 hours. Currently, his positions are not large, suggesting a wait-and-see approach to the market.

From the positions of these traders, long-term traders remain generally optimistic about the future, while short-term traders tend to be more bearish or prefer to reduce their positions and wait.

In summary, the strategy of large funds paints a market picture of "sticking to the mainstream and shorting alts." Although the overall position leans towards bulls, this bullish sentiment is mainly concentrated on a few core assets like BTC and ETH, and its advantages have shown a declining trend. Meanwhile, the Whales' short positions on alts not only number in large quantities but also have a higher profit ratio, indicating their general bearish outlook on high-risk assets and effective harvesting. From the perspective of top traders' personal strategies, long-term investors remain optimistic and patient, while short-term traders tend to be more cautious in shorting or holding coins and waiting. For ordinary investors, understanding the Whales' "dual" strategy may be more important than simply following the bullish or bearish direction.

Risk Warning: The content of this article is based on public data analysis and is for informational reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice or opinions. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, with severe price fluctuations. Investment should be approached with caution; please ensure independent thinking and bear all risks yourself.