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Bitcoin Market Analysis: A Comprehensive Interpretation of Investor Sentiment, Futures Holdings, and On-Chain Data
Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data Analysis
Investor Sentiment Indicator
The current fear and greed index has reached 74, indicating that the market is in a state of greed and investor sentiment is quite high. In June, the index experienced a significant drop, falling below 30 at the beginning of July, which was the lowest point in a year, followed by a notable rebound.
Futures Market Dynamics
Since July 5, the open interest of CME Bitcoin contracts has been continuously increasing. A reduction in open interest began on July 23, but after Trump’s speech on July 28, positions increased again. This reflects a change in market sentiment: at the beginning of July, funds were bullish, some funds reduced positions as they approached resistance levels in mid-month, and after Trump’s speech, the market rebounded quickly, with some funds re-entering.
The short positions of leveraged funds increased by 515 bitcoins last week. Typically, a rise in this indicator also means that arbitrage funds are increasing their positions on the spot side, while a decline in the indicator to a turning point may signal a potential upward trend after short covering.
Spot Market Trends
The Bitcoin long positions on a certain trading platform began to accumulate after hitting a low on March 16, and are currently still at a high level, but the growth has started to slow down.
The stablecoin supply oscillator ( SSRO ) hit a bottom on July 9, falling below the lows of August-September last year, indicating a sharp decline in market participation. However, this also created a turning point, as the indicator has rebounded from the low. This relatively low level may present a better rebound opportunity for altcoins.
Holder Behavior Analysis
The changes in the holding ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders indicate that during the main upward wave from December 2023 to April 2024, long-term holders continued to sell. Since April, Bitcoin has entered a wide fluctuation range, and long-term holders have stopped selling, tending to continue holding.
Long-term holders' unrealized net profit and loss indicator is currently still operating in the green zone and has not yet entered the blue zone (above 0.75). Based on historical experience, once this indicator enters the blue zone and operates for a period of time, it may form the peak of this market cycle.
When the unrealized net profit and loss indicator for short-term holders approaches 0 or is below 0 during a bull market, it often forms a phase bottom. From the end of June 2024 to early July, this indicator was below 0, and on July 15, it recovered to above 0. Referring to the trend in September 2023, this may indicate a subsequent rise in the market.