Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: A Selective Bull Run Driven by Institutions is Brewing

1. The macro turning point has arrived: The policy environment shift drives structural revaluation

Starting from the third quarter of 2025, significant changes have occurred in the macro environment. The policy environment that once marginalized digital assets is transforming into a systemic driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, a shift towards looser fiscal policies, and the accelerated construction of a global encryption regulatory framework, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the macro liquidity in the United States is entering a critical turning point. The market generally expects interest rate cuts within 2025, and real interest rates are expected to fall from high levels. This expectation opens up upside potential for the valuation of risk assets, especially digital assets.

Fiscal policies are also being implemented simultaneously. Large-scale fiscal expansion is bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital assets.

The shift in regulatory attitude is more critical. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change, beginning to formulate a unified standard for simplifying the approval of token ETFs. This represents an essential shift in regulatory logic from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering." The compliance race in the Asian region is also heating up, with stablecoins becoming part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in the traditional financial market is seeing a recovery. The IPO market is warming up, platform user activity is increasing, and risk capital is flowing back, no longer focusing solely on AI and biotechnology, but beginning to re-evaluate blockchain and encryption financial assets.

Driven by both policy and market forces, the brewing of a new bull run is not propelled by emotions but is a process of value reassessment driven by institutional factors. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder yet more powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Leading the Next Bull Run

The core change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of reshuffling, speculation-centric users are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulating chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "locking up" process. The cumulative purchases of Bitcoin by listed companies have surpassed the net purchases of ETFs during the same period. Enterprises regard Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative," and its holdings exhibit greater resilience.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the Ethereum staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to include "on-chain yield assets" in traditional portfolios. Once the staking yield mechanism is packaged and absorbed by the ETF, it will fundamentally change the traditional asset management's perception of crypto assets.

Companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation between traditional "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. This capital injection, colored by "industrial mergers and acquisitions", has stabilized market sentiment and enhanced the valuation anchoring ability of the underlying protocols.

In the fields of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively laying out its plans. The entry of players such as hedge funds and structured product providers will bring fundamental enhancements to "liquidity density" and "market depth."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is rapidly being implemented. From traditional banks to emerging retail financial platforms, there is an expansion in the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only enhances the usability of crypto assets within the fiat currency system but also provides them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted to institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A truly institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: Selective Bull Run Replaces General Surge

The "alt season" of 2025 has entered a new stage. The broad-based rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a manifestation of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after the market returns to rationality.

The chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has welcomed a strong rebound for the first time after several weeks of decline, indicating that major funds have begun to reprice primary assets. Retail sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low-interference" environment for the next round of market movement.

The ETF application has become a new anchor point for thematic structures. In particular, the spot ETF for Solana has been regarded as the next "market consensus event." Asset performance will focus on "whether there is ETF potential, whether there is real income distribution capability, and whether it can attract institutional allocation," showing a differentiated evolution.

The logic in the DeFi space has fundamentally changed. Users have shifted from "points airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi," with protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers are more focused on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure.

The choice of capital has become more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have also become key factors in determining the direction of funds.

The speculative part of the market is also shifting. Although Meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. The strategy of "platform rotation trading" has emerged, but it carries high risks and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, to simplified cross-chain UX and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Balance Between Core Allocation and Event-Driven

The market layout for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven local eruptions". From the long-term allocation of Bitcoin, to the thematic trading of Solana ETFs, and then to the rotation strategy of DeFi real yield protocols and RWA vaults, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows have not reversed, corporate treasuries continue to increase their holdings, and the Federal Reserve's policy is becoming more dovish, BTC shows strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Leading institutions like VanEck have submitted applications for a SOL spot ETF, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of capital for pre-positioning. This narrative will drive the governance tokens of SOL spot and its staking ecosystem.

DeFi portfolios are still worth reconstructing, but they should focus on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capability, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects such as SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., use an equal-weight allocation method to capture relative returns.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, limiting it to within 5% of the total asset net value, and manage positions with an options mindset. For investors accustomed to event-driven trading, these types of assets can serve as emotional replenishment tools, but should not be misjudged as the core of the trend.

Another key point in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layout. The market is transitioning from an "information vacuum" to an "event-intensive release." With the Solana ETF review nodes approaching, a "policy + capital resonance" market is expected to occur from mid-August to early September.

In addition, attention should be paid to the momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 to promote tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration. Some projects that integrate AI and DePIN may also become the "explosive points" in the marginal sectors.

Overall, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must shift to a hybrid strategy of "anchored by the core, winged by events." Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the banner, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerators. In the new environment where ETF capital bases are expanding, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real yields."

V. Conclusion: A new round of wealth migration is quietly unfolding.

Each round of bull and bear cycles is essentially a periodic reshuffling of value reassessment. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real earnings is brewing.

Bitcoin is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises and a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of U.S. ETFs has changed the traditional chip structure, building a foundational capital reservoir. In the future, the biggest impact on Bitcoin's price will come from institutional buying, as well as the allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeover." Crypto assets are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets," and these structural opportunities will lead the next wave of capital tides.

The new altcoin season will be more deeply tied to three major anchors: real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that can attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects with RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle.

For ordinary investors, the current period is a golden time for large funds to quietly complete their positions. The key lies in whether one can stand on the right structure and grasp the major upward trend opportunities through the reconstruction of position structure rather than through aggressive speculation.

The third quarter of 2025 will be a prelude to this wealth transfer. Whether it is the institutional takeover of Bitcoin, the ETF narrative of Solana, the reconstruction of the cash flow valuation system in DeFi, the globalization wave of stablecoins, or the establishment of a new order for L2, all indicate the arrival of a new bull run.

The next bull run will reward those who think a step ahead of the market. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, information sources, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the peak, but will quietly shift before dawn.